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\title{Visualising the Impacts of Sea-level Rise}
\author{Nigel Stanger}
\date{15 September 2023}


\begin{document}


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\begin{frame}
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    \titlepage
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\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{It started with a ``simple'' question}
    
    \begin{tcolorbox}
        {How can we make the effects of climate change induced sea-level rise easier to understand for ``ordinary people''?}
    \end{tcolorbox}

    \begin{itemize}
        \item The science can be difficult to grasp.
        \smallskip

        \item Scientific data/visualisations are often too abstract:
        \begin{itemize}
            \item ``80cm of sea-level rise? What does that look like?''
            \item ``Will it affect my house?'' {\tiny (also important cultural/ecological/historical… sites)}
        \end{itemize}
    \end{itemize}

    \begin{center}
        \includegraphics[height=3.5cm,keepaspectratio]{nz-projections.png} \\[-0.6em]
        {\tiny SOURCE: \href{https://environment.govt.nz/publications/interim-guidance-on-the-use-of-new-sea-level-rise-projections/}{\emph{Interim guidance on the use of new sea-level rise projections}} (Ministry for the Environment, 2022).}
    \end{center}
\end{frame}


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            \parbox{\columnwidth}{
                \fontspec{Noto Sans ExtraBold}
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                South Dunedin residents keen to \\
                hear from scientists what climate \\
                change has in store
            }
        };
        \node[anchor=north east] at (headline.south east) {
            \footnotesize (Radio New Zealand, 2023-09-13)
        };
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\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{First, some context}

    \begin{center}
        \includegraphics[height=7.5cm,keepaspectratio]{gmd-13-3571-2020-f01-high-res.pdf} \\[-0.6em]
        {\tiny SOURCE: Meinshausen et al. (2020) \href{https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020}{The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas}} \\[-0.5em]
        {\tiny \href{https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020}{concentrations and their extensions to 2500}. \emph{Geoscientific Model Development} \textbf{13}:3571--3605. CC-BY-4.0.}
    \end{center}
\end{frame}


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\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs)}
    \framesubtitle{(\url{https://climatescenarios.org/primer/socioeconomic-development/})}

    \bigskip
    \begin{itemize}
        \item IPCC AR5 (2014) used four \emph{Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)} to model future \emph{climatological} scenarios.
        \smallskip

        \item AR6 uses five SSPs (2021) to model future \emph{socio-economic} scenarios: narratives of ``what the world could become''.
    \end{itemize}

    \begin{center}
        \includegraphics[width=4.5cm, keepaspectratio]{SSPs.png}
    \end{center}
\end{frame}


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\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{What could this mean for New Zealand?}

    \begin{center}
        \begin{tabular}{lr}
            \toprule
            \textbf{Pathway} & \textbf{Rise (2100)} \\
            \midrule
            Sustainability (RCP2.6) & \(\approx\) \SI{45}{\centi\metre} \\
            Middle of the Road (RCP4.5) & \(\approx\) \SI{55}{\centi\metre} \\
            Fossil-fueled Development (RCP8.5) & \(\approx\) \SI{80}{\centi\metre} \\
            \bottomrule
            \multicolumn{2}{l}{\scriptsize\emph{Coastal hazards and climate change: Guidance for local government}} \\[-0.33em]
            \multicolumn{2}{l}{\scriptsize (Ministry for the Environment, 2017).} \\
        \end{tabular}
    \end{center}
    \medskip

    \small
    \begin{columns}
        \begin{column}[T]{0.4\paperwidth}
            \textbf{\textcolor{structure}{Increased chance of}}
            \begin{itemize}
                \item storm surge
                \item coastal flooding
                \item higher water table
                \item groundwater contamination
                \item …
            \end{itemize}
        \end{column}
        \begin{column}[T]{0.4\paperwidth}
            \textbf{\textcolor{structure}{Potential damage to}}
            \begin{itemize}
                \item property \& infrastructure
                \item ecosystems {\tiny (e.g., wetlands)}
                \item cultural \& heritage sites
                \item …
            \end{itemize}
        \end{column}
    \end{columns}
\end{frame}


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\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{First steps (2021/2022)}

    \begin{itemize}
        \item Summer scholarship via Katharina Ruckstuhl, late 2021:
        \begin{itemize}
            \item recruited Owyn Aitken (data science)
            \item in collaboration with Aukaha \tinyskip
            {\tiny (Ngāi Tahu environmental and social consultancy)}
        \end{itemize}
        \medskip

        \item Goals:
        \begin{itemize}
            \item what data are available?
            \item basic visualisations (proof of concept)
            \item can we model sites of significance to Ngāi Tahu?
        \end{itemize}
    \end{itemize}

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\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{First outcomes (2021/2022)}

    \begin{itemize}
        \item \emph{Lots} of potentially useful data:
        \begin{itemize}
            \item IPCC projections (global and ``downscaled'' for NZ)
            \item ORC natural hazards database layers: alluvial fans, flooding, coastal inundation {\tiny (including storm surge \& tsunami)}
            \item 2021 LiDAR DEM data via ORC and LINZ {\tiny (varying resolutions)}
            \item property values \& titles/borders (LINZ)
            \item groundwater data (GNS Science)
            \item \emph{Kā Huru Manu} Ngāi Tahu cultural atlas {\tiny (\url{https://kahurumanu.co.nz})}
            \item …and much more
        \end{itemize}
        \medskip
        
        \item Simple ``bathtub'' model of South Dunedin:
        \begin{itemize}
            \item IPCC scenarios: SSP1 (RCP2.6), SSP2 (RCP4.5), SSP5 (RCP8.5)
            \item sea level rise only; no groundwater, geology, storm surge, …
            \item not overly realistic, not predictive
            \item non-interactive visualisations
        \end{itemize}
        \medskip

        \item Made connections with the STRAND project.
    \end{itemize}
\end{frame}


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\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{STRAND (Marsden)}
    \framesubtitle{(\url{https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/strandproject/})}

    \begin{itemize}
        \item Initially led by Ivan Diaz-Rainey (\(\Rightarrow\) Griffith), now Tony Moore.
        \medskip

        \item Initial focus on ``climate-change flooding related risks to residential property values across space and time, and the related implications for financial stability.''
        \medskip

        \item ArcGIS model with \(\approx\) 40,000 layers that model outcomes of combinations of various factors. {\tiny (e.g., planning decisions)}
    \end{itemize}
\end{frame}


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\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Static overlays}

    \includegraphics[height=4.9cm,keepaspectratio]{dunedin-dem.png}
    \hfill
    \includegraphics[height=4.9cm,keepaspectratio]{dunedin-buildings.png}
    \hfill
    \includegraphics[height=4.9cm,keepaspectratio]{dunedin-combined.png}
\end{frame}


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\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Static overlays}

    \centering
    \includegraphics[width=\columnwidth,keepaspectratio]{south-dunedin-3d-view.png}
\end{frame}


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\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{3D video flyover}

    \includegraphics[width=\columnwidth,keepaspectratio]{dunedin-3d-flyover.png}
\end{frame}


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\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Second stage (2022/2023)}

    \bigskip
    \begin{itemize}
        \item Second summer scholarship, further work with STRAND.
        \medskip

        \item Exploratory visualisations:
        \begin{itemize}
            \item flood risk analysis (Dunedin)
            \item road network connectivity (Banks Peninsula)
        \end{itemize}
    \end{itemize}
    \medskip

    \begin{columns}
        \begin{column}[T]{0.35\paperwidth}
            \centering
            \textbf{\textcolor{structure}{Flood risk}} \\[0.2\baselineskip]
            \includegraphics[width=0.8\columnwidth, keepaspectratio]{banks-flood-risk.png}
        \end{column}
        \begin{column}[T]{0.45\paperwidth}
            \centering
            \textbf{\textcolor{structure}{Road network analysis}} \\[0.2\baselineskip]
            \includegraphics[width=\columnwidth, keepaspectratio]{banks-network-analysis.png}
        \end{column}
    \end{columns}
\end{frame}


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\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Ongoing work (2023)}

    \begin{itemize}
        \item Upgraded interactive visualisations:
        \begin{itemize}
            \item migrated bathtub model to ArcGIS
            \item flood risk layer (direct impacts)
            \item road network connectivity layer (indirect impacts)
        \end{itemize}
        \medskip

        \item Science Expo demonstration (July 1--2):
        \begin{itemize}
            \item a lot of interest
            \item quite evocative despite its limitations
            \item many ``wow'' moments
        \end{itemize}
    \end{itemize}
\end{frame}


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\begin{frame}
    \centering
    \bigskip
    \includegraphics[height=4cm, keepaspectratio]{holger-expo-1.jpg} \\
    \includegraphics[height=4cm, keepaspectratio]{holger-expo-2.jpg} \tinyskip
    {\tiny (Photos by Holger Regenbrecht)}
\end{frame}


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\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Flood risk (direct)}

    \centering
    \medskip
    \includegraphics[width=0.9\columnwidth, keepaspectratio]{expo-flood-2.pdf} \\[0.1em]
    \includegraphics[width=0.445\columnwidth, height=2.5cm]{expo-flood-1.pdf}
    \includegraphics[width=0.445\columnwidth, height=2.5cm]{expo-flood-3.pdf}
\end{frame}


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\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Road network connectivity (indirect)}

    \centering
    \medskip
    \includegraphics[width=0.88\columnwidth, keepaspectratio]{expo-network-1.pdf} \\[0.1em]
    \includegraphics[width=0.435\columnwidth, height=2.45cm]{expo-network-2.pdf}
    \includegraphics[width=0.435\columnwidth, height=2.45cm]{expo-network-3.pdf}
\end{frame}


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\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Next steps}

    \begin{itemize}
        \item We got funding! \faThumbsUp[regular]
        \begin{itemize}
            \item Ngā Pae o te Māramatanga 2023--2024 {\tiny (Matakitenga fund)}
            \item \emph{Mō ngā uri a muri ake nei: Supporting Te Tai o Araiteuru inter-generational decision-making through sea-rise visualisation}
            \item[\(\Rightarrow\)] Decision support tool for future planning. \tinyskip
            {\tiny (especially in sensitive areas)}
        \end{itemize}
        \medskip

        \item Further collaboration \& modelling with Aukaha, e.g.:
        \begin{itemize}
            \item Kā Huru Manu private layers
            \item coastal archaeological sites
            \item Papanui Inlet, Waikouaiti River (Puketeraki)
            \item River restoration: Taieri (DOC, Ngā Awa), Te Hakapupu (ORC)
            \item housing projects
            \item …
            \item[\textbf{BUT:}] must respect data sovereignty, sensitivity, tikanga \tinyskip
            {\tiny (kaitiaki rūnaka remain in control)}
        \end{itemize}
    \end{itemize}
\end{frame}


% Lidar data for Dunedin (available through LINZ)
% DEM (Digital Elevation Model) data at varying resolutions for the whole country.
% Property values nationwide and property borders/tiles (the latter available through LINZ)
% Groundwater data from GNS Science
% They're looking at getting access to precipitation projections.
% Global IPCC seal level rises (which is very similar to regional sea level rise) 
% Infrastructure data available through LINZ/OpenStreetMaps - this could be used to model where sites would become inaccessible
% NIWA has storm surge/ coastal inundation models but apparently these are inaccurate/ still being redeveloped.
% Quyen suggested looking at drought data as well however STRAND doesn't currently focus on this.

% also EQC claims map: https://www.naturalhazardsportal.govt.nz/s/claims-map


%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%


\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Next steps}

    \begin{itemize}
        \item Integrate additional hazards/risks:
        \begin{itemize}
            \item storm surge (ORC, NIWA)
            \item groundwater (GNS Science, Ngāi Tahu)
            \item EQC claims {\tiny (\url{https://www.naturalhazardsportal.govt.nz/s/claims-map})}
        \end{itemize}
        \medskip

        \item Further develop interactive prototype:
        \begin{itemize}
            \item user study with Aukaha (\& broader community?)
            \item VR/AR?
        \end{itemize}
    \end{itemize}
\end{frame}


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\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Acknowledgements}

    \begin{itemize}
        \item Owyn for doing all the \emph{real} work! \faGrinBeam[regular]
        \medskip

        \item Otago: Katharina Ruckstuhl \& Brendon Woodford.
        \medskip

        \item Aukaha: Kate Timms-Dean, Michael Bathgate, Korako Edwards.
        \medskip
        
        \item STRAND: Ivan Diaz-Rainey, Tony Moore, Quyen Nguyen, ….
        \medskip
        
        \item ORC: Andrew Welsh.
        \medskip

        \item Ngā Pae o te Māramatanga.
    \end{itemize}
\end{frame}


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\begin{frame}
    \thispagestyle{empty}

    \centering
    \mbox{}\vfill
    \Huge{\textbf{\textcolor{structure}{THANK YOU}}}
    \bigskip\bigskip

    \large{\textbf{\textcolor{structure}{Questions?}}}
    \vfill\mbox{}
\end{frame}


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\end{document}
