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  5.     <title>UTas ePrints - Predicting global dynamics from local interactions: individual-based models predict complex features of marine epibenthic communities</title>
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  13.     <meta content="Dunstan, Piers K." name="eprints.creators_name" />
  14. <meta content="Johnson, Craig R." name="eprints.creators_name" />
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  21. <meta content="Predicting global dynamics from local interactions: individual-based models predict complex features of marine
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  26. <meta content="Spatial individual-based model; Emergent dynamics; Community variability; Predictive model; Marine epibenthic" name="eprints.keywords" />
  27. <meta content="Spatially explicit community models often generate a wide range of complex dynamics and behaviours, but the predictions
  28. of community structure and dynamics from many of these models are rarely compared with the natural communities they are
  29. intended to represent. Here, we develop a spatially explicit individual-based model of a complex marine epibenthic community
  30. and test its ability to predict the dynamics and structure of the natural community on which the model is based. We studied
  31. a natural epibenthic community on small-scale patches of jetty wall to estimate the outcomes of pair-wise interactions among
  32. individuals of different species, neighbour-specific growth rates, and species-specific recruitment and mortality rates. The model
  33. is defined with rules acting at two spatial scales: (1) between individual cells on the spatial landscape that define the nature of
  34. interactions, growth and recruitment at a scale of 1 cm2, and (2) at the scale of whole colonies (blocks of contiguous cells) that
  35. define size-specific mortality and limitations to the maximum size of colonies for some species for scales up to 1000 cm2. The
  36. model is compared to the existing patches on the jetty wall and proves to be a good descriptor of the large range of possible
  37. communities on the jetty, and of the multivariate variances of the patches. The high variability in community structure predicted
  38. by the model, which is similar to that observed in the natural community, arises from observed variability in parameters of
  39. interaction outcomes, growth, recruitment, and mortality of each species. Thus if the processes we modelled operate similarly
  40. in nature, our results suggest that it is difficult to attempt to predict the precise trajectory of the community in a particular patch.
  41. Our results show that it is possible to develop a testable, predictive spatial model where the patch-scale community patterns of
  42. structure and dynamics are emergent, arising from local processes between colonies and species-specific demography." name="eprints.abstract" />
  43. <meta content="2005" name="eprints.date" />
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  197. intended to represent. Here, we develop a spatially explicit individual-based model of a complex marine epibenthic community
  198. and test its ability to predict the dynamics and structure of the natural community on which the model is based. We studied
  199. a natural epibenthic community on small-scale patches of jetty wall to estimate the outcomes of pair-wise interactions among
  200. individuals of different species, neighbour-specific growth rates, and species-specific recruitment and mortality rates. The model
  201. is defined with rules acting at two spatial scales: (1) between individual cells on the spatial landscape that define the nature of
  202. interactions, growth and recruitment at a scale of 1 cm2, and (2) at the scale of whole colonies (blocks of contiguous cells) that
  203. define size-specific mortality and limitations to the maximum size of colonies for some species for scales up to 1000 cm2. The
  204. model is compared to the existing patches on the jetty wall and proves to be a good descriptor of the large range of possible
  205. communities on the jetty, and of the multivariate variances of the patches. The high variability in community structure predicted
  206. by the model, which is similar to that observed in the natural community, arises from observed variability in parameters of
  207. interaction outcomes, growth, recruitment, and mortality of each species. Thus if the processes we modelled operate similarly
  208. in nature, our results suggest that it is difficult to attempt to predict the precise trajectory of the community in a particular patch.
  209. Our results show that it is possible to develop a testable, predictive spatial model where the patch-scale community patterns of
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  324.     <h1 class="ep_tm_pagetitle">Predicting global dynamics from local interactions: individual-based models predict complex features of marine epibenthic communities</h1>
  325.     <p style="margin-bottom: 1em" class="not_ep_block"><span class="person_name">Dunstan, Piers K.</span> and <span class="person_name">Johnson, Craig R.</span> (2005) <xhtml:em>Predicting global dynamics from local interactions: individual-based models predict complex features of marine epibenthic communities.</xhtml:em> Ecological Modelling, 186 (2). pp. 221-233. ISSN 0304-3800</p><p style="margin-bottom: 1em" class="not_ep_block"></p><table style="margin-bottom: 1em" class="not_ep_block"><tr><td valign="top" style="text-align:center"><a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/1037/1/2005_Dunstan_%26_Johnson_Ecol_Modelling.pdf"><img alt="[img]" src="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/style/images/fileicons/application_pdf.png" border="0" class="ep_doc_icon" /></a></td><td valign="top"><a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/1037/1/2005_Dunstan_%26_Johnson_Ecol_Modelling.pdf"><span class="ep_document_citation">PDF</span></a> - Full text restricted - Requires a PDF viewer<br />177Kb</td><td><form method="get" accept-charset="utf-8" action="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/cgi/request_doc"><input value="1200" name="docid" accept-charset="utf-8" type="hidden" /><div class=""><input value="Request a copy" name="_action_null" class="ep_form_action_button" onclick="return EPJS_button_pushed( '_action_null' )" type="submit" /> </div></form></td></tr></table><p style="margin-bottom: 1em" class="not_ep_block">Official URL: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.01.016">http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.01.016</a></p><div class="not_ep_block"><h2>Abstract</h2><p style="padding-bottom: 16px; text-align: left; margin: 1em auto 0em auto">Spatially explicit community models often generate a wide range of complex dynamics and behaviours, but the predictions&#13;
  326. of community structure and dynamics from many of these models are rarely compared with the natural communities they are&#13;
  327. intended to represent. Here, we develop a spatially explicit individual-based model of a complex marine epibenthic community&#13;
  328. and test its ability to predict the dynamics and structure of the natural community on which the model is based. We studied&#13;
  329. a natural epibenthic community on small-scale patches of jetty wall to estimate the outcomes of pair-wise interactions among&#13;
  330. individuals of different species, neighbour-specific growth rates, and species-specific recruitment and mortality rates. The model&#13;
  331. is defined with rules acting at two spatial scales: (1) between individual cells on the spatial landscape that define the nature of&#13;
  332. interactions, growth and recruitment at a scale of 1 cm2, and (2) at the scale of whole colonies (blocks of contiguous cells) that&#13;
  333. define size-specific mortality and limitations to the maximum size of colonies for some species for scales up to 1000 cm2. The&#13;
  334. model is compared to the existing patches on the jetty wall and proves to be a good descriptor of the large range of possible&#13;
  335. communities on the jetty, and of the multivariate variances of the patches. The high variability in community structure predicted&#13;
  336. by the model, which is similar to that observed in the natural community, arises from observed variability in parameters of&#13;
  337. interaction outcomes, growth, recruitment, and mortality of each species. Thus if the processes we modelled operate similarly&#13;
  338. in nature, our results suggest that it is difficult to attempt to predict the precise trajectory of the community in a particular patch.&#13;
  339. Our results show that it is possible to develop a testable, predictive spatial model where the patch-scale community patterns of&#13;
  340. structure and dynamics are emergent, arising from local processes between colonies and species-specific demography.</p></div><table style="margin-bottom: 1em" border="0" cellpadding="3" class="not_ep_block"><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Item Type:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">Article</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Keywords:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">Spatial individual-based model; Emergent dynamics; Community variability; Predictive model; Marine epibenthic</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Subjects:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row"><a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/view/subjects/270702.html">270000 Biological Sciences &gt; 270700 Ecology and Evolution &gt; 270702 Marine and Estuarine Ecology (incl. Marine Ichthyology)</a></td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Collections:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">UNSPECIFIED</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">ID Code:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">1037</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Deposited By:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row"><span class="ep_name_citation"><span class="person_name">Professor Craig R. Johnson</span></span></td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Deposited On:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">17 May 2007</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Last Modified:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">04 Feb 2008 16:19</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">ePrint Statistics:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row"><a target="ePrintStats" href="/es/index.php?action=show_detail_eprint;id=1037;">View statistics for this ePrint</a></td></tr></table><p align="right">Repository Staff Only: <a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/cgi/users/home?screen=EPrint::View&amp;eprintid=1037">item control page</a></p>
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