2023 SoC seminar

nigel.stanger / SoC_seminar_2023_09_15

Browse code 2023 SoC seminar main
0 parent commit 8cfe206cf141c266b9ec36bb53b58ad54f425ba1 Nigel Stanger authored on 21 Sep 2023

Patch

Showing 22 changed files

Ignore Space Show notes View .gitattributes 0 → 100644
.pdf filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text .jpg filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text *.png filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text

Ignore Space Show notes View images/6002861.jpg 0 → 100644

Ignore Space Show notes View images/SSPs.png 0 → 100644

Ignore Space Show notes View images/banks-flood-risk.png 0 → 100644

Ignore Space Show notes View images/banks-network-analysis.png 0 → 100644

Ignore Space Show notes View images/dunedin-3d-flyover.png 0 → 100644

Ignore Space Show notes View images/dunedin-buildings.png 0 → 100644

Ignore Space Show notes View images/dunedin-combined.png 0 → 100644

Ignore Space Show notes View images/dunedin-dem.png 0 → 100644

Ignore Space Show notes View images/expo-flood-1.pdf 0 → 100644
version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1 oid sha256:f776a5f104a8afad8414171fb7543976f1c3dd2194961c99d41604b4cc6ff96c size 1063597

Ignore Space Show notes View images/expo-flood-2.pdf 0 → 100644
version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1 oid sha256:3f912f8be98abcaab6b81e5fc623d8549b48860d69f4087b17c923f8af8ed1a9 size 1006930

Ignore Space Show notes View images/expo-flood-3.pdf 0 → 100644
version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1 oid sha256:2ec8f356fa41cb712019da1aa4caa9f157da1e1e953620d3787fc2fdb37938f8 size 969272

Ignore Space Show notes View images/expo-network-1.pdf 0 → 100644
version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1 oid sha256:e463f34b1a7e874c5ced5c9cfd3f62257a3ed8a50f84ea231f9bcc6cca63e4ff size 791444

Ignore Space Show notes View images/expo-network-2.pdf 0 → 100644
version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1 oid sha256:e5554f647711f9b90690249440ec17d57315d7e597d0f92a7bc14569b9a89c38 size 696801

Ignore Space Show notes View images/expo-network-3.pdf 0 → 100644
version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1 oid sha256:3c4f7ebe3ab7ae92cc399ffa1e9677d027f5186780558b15b3a50829f3d1c7b7 size 218932

Ignore Space Show notes View images/gmd-13-3571-2020-f01-high-res.pdf 0 → 100644
version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1 oid sha256:e8f2a9aa9c9b322e6a5a311d82ea6736dd26a182985625e1f610ab322d8573b3 size 555437

Ignore Space Show notes View images/holger-expo-1.jpg 0 → 100644

Ignore Space Show notes View images/holger-expo-2.jpg 0 → 100644

Ignore Space Show notes View images/nz-projections.png 0 → 100644

Ignore Space Show notes View images/south-dunedin-3d-view.png 0 → 100644

Ignore Space Show notes View seminar.pdf 0 → 100644
version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1 oid sha256:468790ad5da3cce07dfb873145a06f443a6edf467caa964201ca1293031cef3f size 12919683

Ignore Space Show notes View seminar.tex 0 → 100644
\documentclass{beamer} \usepackage{booktabs} \usepackage{fontawesome5} \usepackage[no-math]{fontspec} \usepackage{graphicx} \usepackage[mode=text]{siunitx} \usepackage{tcolorbox} \usepackage{tikz} \usepackage{xltxtra} \usepackage{xunicode} % Beamer setup \mode<presentation> { \usetheme{OtagoPlain} \setbeamertemplate{navigation symbols}{} } % TikZ setup \usetikzlibrary{positioning} \usetikzlibrary{calc} \usetikzlibrary{arrows.meta} \usetikzlibrary{shapes.geometric} % fontspec setup \defaultfontfeatures{Mapping=tex-text} \setmainfont{Minion Pro} \setsansfont[Scale=MatchUppercase,BoldFont={Open Sans}]{Open Sans Light} \setmonofont[Scale=MatchLowercase]{Letter Gothic 12 Pitch} % graphicx setup \graphicspath{{images/}} % Initialise hyperref. % \inithyperref % Sometimes we want to put a comment in tiny text on the next line, but the default line skip % will insert too much vertical space. Put a \tinyskip at the end of the line instead. \def\tinyskip{\\[-0.33\baselineskip]} \newcommand{\highlight}[2][yellow!75]{\setlength{\fboxsep}{1pt}\hskip-1pt\colorbox{#1}{\vphantom{dy}#2}\hskip-1pt} \title{Visualising the Impacts of Sea-level Rise} \author{Nigel Stanger} \date{15 September 2023} \begin{document} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{frame} \thispagestyle{empty} \titlepage \end{frame} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{frame} \frametitle{It started with a ``simple'' question} \begin{tcolorbox} {How can we make the effects of climate change induced sea-level rise easier to understand for ``ordinary people''?} \end{tcolorbox} \begin{itemize} \item The science can be difficult to grasp. \smallskip \item Scientific data/visualisations are often too abstract: \begin{itemize} \item ``80cm of sea-level rise? What does that look like?'' \item ``Will it affect my house?'' {\tiny (also important cultural/ecological/historical… sites)} \end{itemize} \end{itemize} \begin{center} \includegraphics[height=3.5cm,keepaspectratio]{nz-projections.png} \\[-0.6em] {\tiny SOURCE: \href{https://environment.govt.nz/publications/interim-guidance-on-the-use-of-new-sea-level-rise-projections/}{\emph{Interim guidance on the use of new sea-level rise projections}} (Ministry for the Environment, 2022).} \end{center} \end{frame} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{frame} \thispagestyle{empty} \begin{tikzpicture}[remember picture, overlay] \node (headline) at ($(current page) + (0,0.5em)$) { \parbox{\columnwidth}{ \fontspec{Noto Sans ExtraBold} \fontsize{18pt}{21.6pt}\selectfont South Dunedin residents keen to \\ hear from scientists what climate \\ change has in store } }; \node[anchor=north east] at (headline.south east) { \footnotesize (Radio New Zealand, 2023-09-13) }; \end{tikzpicture} \end{frame} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{frame} \frametitle{First, some context} \begin{center} \includegraphics[height=7.5cm,keepaspectratio]{gmd-13-3571-2020-f01-high-res.pdf} \\[-0.6em] {\tiny SOURCE: Meinshausen et al. (2020) \href{https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020}{The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas}} \\[-0.5em] {\tiny \href{https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020}{concentrations and their extensions to 2500}. \emph{Geoscientific Model Development} \textbf{13}:3571--3605. CC-BY-4.0.} \end{center} \end{frame} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{frame} \frametitle{Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs)} \framesubtitle{(\url{https://climatescenarios.org/primer/socioeconomic-development/})} \bigskip \begin{itemize} \item IPCC AR5 (2014) used four \emph{Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)} to model future \emph{climatological} scenarios. \smallskip \item AR6 uses five SSPs (2021) to model future \emph{socio-economic} scenarios: narratives of ``what the world could become''. \end{itemize} \begin{center} \includegraphics[width=4.5cm, keepaspectratio]{SSPs.png} \end{center} \end{frame} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{frame} \frametitle{What could this mean for New Zealand?} \begin{center} \begin{tabular}{lr} \toprule \textbf{Pathway} & \textbf{Rise (2100)} \\ \midrule Sustainability (RCP2.6) & \(\approx\) \SI{45}{\centi\metre} \\ Middle of the Road (RCP4.5) & \(\approx\) \SI{55}{\centi\metre} \\ Fossil-fueled Development (RCP8.5) & \(\approx\) \SI{80}{\centi\metre} \\ \bottomrule \multicolumn{2}{l}{\scriptsize\emph{Coastal hazards and climate change: Guidance for local government}} \\[-0.33em] \multicolumn{2}{l}{\scriptsize (Ministry for the Environment, 2017).} \\ \end{tabular} \end{center} \medskip \small \begin{columns} \begin{column}[T]{0.4\paperwidth} \textbf{\textcolor{structure}{Increased chance of}} \begin{itemize} \item storm surge \item coastal flooding \item higher water table \item groundwater contamination \item … \end{itemize} \end{column} \begin{column}[T]{0.4\paperwidth} \textbf{\textcolor{structure}{Potential damage to}} \begin{itemize} \item property \& infrastructure \item ecosystems {\tiny (e.g., wetlands)} \item cultural \& heritage sites \item … \end{itemize} \end{column} \end{columns} \end{frame} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{frame} \frametitle{First steps (2021/2022)} \begin{itemize} \item Summer scholarship via Katharina Ruckstuhl, late 2021: \begin{itemize} \item recruited Owyn Aitken (data science) \item in collaboration with Aukaha \tinyskip {\tiny (Ngāi Tahu environmental and social consultancy)} \end{itemize} \medskip \item Goals: \begin{itemize} \item what data are available? \item basic visualisations (proof of concept) \item can we model sites of significance to Ngāi Tahu? \end{itemize} \end{itemize} \begin{onlyenv}<2> \begin{tikzpicture}[remember picture, overlay] \node[anchor=east] at ($(current page.east) + (-5mm,5mm)$) { \includegraphics[width=3cm, keepaspectratio]{6002861.jpg} }; \end{tikzpicture} \end{onlyenv} \end{frame} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{frame} \frametitle{First outcomes (2021/2022)} \begin{itemize} \item \emph{Lots} of potentially useful data: \begin{itemize} \item IPCC projections (global and ``downscaled'' for NZ) \item ORC natural hazards database layers: alluvial fans, flooding, coastal inundation {\tiny (including storm surge \& tsunami)} \item 2021 LiDAR DEM data via ORC and LINZ {\tiny (varying resolutions)} \item property values \& titles/borders (LINZ) \item groundwater data (GNS Science) \item \emph{Kā Huru Manu} Ngāi Tahu cultural atlas {\tiny (\url{https://kahurumanu.co.nz})} \item …and much more \end{itemize} \medskip \item Simple ``bathtub'' model of South Dunedin: \begin{itemize} \item IPCC scenarios: SSP1 (RCP2.6), SSP2 (RCP4.5), SSP5 (RCP8.5) \item sea level rise only; no groundwater, geology, storm surge, … \item not overly realistic, not predictive \item non-interactive visualisations \end{itemize} \medskip \item Made connections with the STRAND project. \end{itemize} \end{frame} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{frame} \frametitle{STRAND (Marsden)} \framesubtitle{(\url{https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/strandproject/})} \begin{itemize} \item Initially led by Ivan Diaz-Rainey (\(\Rightarrow\) Griffith), now Tony Moore. \medskip \item Initial focus on ``climate-change flooding related risks to residential property values across space and time, and the related implications for financial stability.'' \medskip \item ArcGIS model with \(\approx\) 40,000 layers that model outcomes of combinations of various factors. {\tiny (e.g., planning decisions)} \end{itemize} \end{frame} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{frame} \frametitle{Static overlays} \includegraphics[height=4.9cm,keepaspectratio]{dunedin-dem.png} \hfill \includegraphics[height=4.9cm,keepaspectratio]{dunedin-buildings.png} \hfill \includegraphics[height=4.9cm,keepaspectratio]{dunedin-combined.png} \end{frame} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{frame} \frametitle{Static overlays} \centering \includegraphics[width=\columnwidth,keepaspectratio]{south-dunedin-3d-view.png} \end{frame} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{frame} \frametitle{3D video flyover} \includegraphics[width=\columnwidth,keepaspectratio]{dunedin-3d-flyover.png} \end{frame} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{frame} \frametitle{Second stage (2022/2023)} \bigskip \begin{itemize} \item Second summer scholarship, further work with STRAND. \medskip \item Exploratory visualisations: \begin{itemize} \item flood risk analysis (Dunedin) \item road network connectivity (Banks Peninsula) \end{itemize} \end{itemize} \medskip \begin{columns} \begin{column}[T]{0.35\paperwidth} \centering \textbf{\textcolor{structure}{Flood risk}} \\[0.2\baselineskip] \includegraphics[width=0.8\columnwidth, keepaspectratio]{banks-flood-risk.png} \end{column} \begin{column}[T]{0.45\paperwidth} \centering \textbf{\textcolor{structure}{Road network analysis}} \\[0.2\baselineskip] \includegraphics[width=\columnwidth, keepaspectratio]{banks-network-analysis.png} \end{column} \end{columns} \end{frame} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{frame} \frametitle{Ongoing work (2023)} \begin{itemize} \item Upgraded interactive visualisations: \begin{itemize} \item migrated bathtub model to ArcGIS \item flood risk layer (direct impacts) \item road network connectivity layer (indirect impacts) \end{itemize} \medskip \item Science Expo demonstration (July 1--2): \begin{itemize} \item a lot of interest \item quite evocative despite its limitations \item many ``wow'' moments \end{itemize} \end{itemize} \end{frame} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{frame} \centering \bigskip \includegraphics[height=4cm, keepaspectratio]{holger-expo-1.jpg} \\ \includegraphics[height=4cm, keepaspectratio]{holger-expo-2.jpg} \tinyskip {\tiny (Photos by Holger Regenbrecht)} \end{frame} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{frame} \frametitle{Flood risk (direct)} \centering \medskip \includegraphics[width=0.9\columnwidth, keepaspectratio]{expo-flood-2.pdf} \\[0.1em] \includegraphics[width=0.445\columnwidth, height=2.5cm]{expo-flood-1.pdf} \includegraphics[width=0.445\columnwidth, height=2.5cm]{expo-flood-3.pdf} \end{frame} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{frame} \frametitle{Road network connectivity (indirect)} \centering \medskip \includegraphics[width=0.88\columnwidth, keepaspectratio]{expo-network-1.pdf} \\[0.1em] \includegraphics[width=0.435\columnwidth, height=2.45cm]{expo-network-2.pdf} \includegraphics[width=0.435\columnwidth, height=2.45cm]{expo-network-3.pdf} \end{frame} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{frame} \frametitle{Next steps} \begin{itemize} \item We got funding! \faThumbsUp[regular] \begin{itemize} \item Ngā Pae o te Māramatanga 2023--2024 {\tiny (Matakitenga fund)} \item \emph{Mō ngā uri a muri ake nei: Supporting Te Tai o Araiteuru inter-generational decision-making through sea-rise visualisation} \item[\(\Rightarrow\)] Decision support tool for future planning. \tinyskip {\tiny (especially in sensitive areas)} \end{itemize} \medskip \item Further collaboration \& modelling with Aukaha, e.g.: \begin{itemize} \item Kā Huru Manu private layers \item coastal archaeological sites \item Papanui Inlet, Waikouaiti River (Puketeraki) \item River restoration: Taieri (DOC, Ngā Awa), Te Hakapupu (ORC) \item housing projects \item … \item[\textbf{BUT:}] must respect data sovereignty, sensitivity, tikanga \tinyskip {\tiny (kaitiaki rūnaka remain in control)} \end{itemize} \end{itemize} \end{frame} % Lidar data for Dunedin (available through LINZ) % DEM (Digital Elevation Model) data at varying resolutions for the whole country. % Property values nationwide and property borders/tiles (the latter available through LINZ) % Groundwater data from GNS Science % They're looking at getting access to precipitation projections. % Global IPCC seal level rises (which is very similar to regional sea level rise) % Infrastructure data available through LINZ/OpenStreetMaps - this could be used to model where sites would become inaccessible % NIWA has storm surge/ coastal inundation models but apparently these are inaccurate/ still being redeveloped. % Quyen suggested looking at drought data as well however STRAND doesn't currently focus on this. % also EQC claims map: https://www.naturalhazardsportal.govt.nz/s/claims-map %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{frame} \frametitle{Next steps} \begin{itemize} \item Integrate additional hazards/risks: \begin{itemize} \item storm surge (ORC, NIWA) \item groundwater (GNS Science, Ngāi Tahu) \item EQC claims {\tiny (\url{https://www.naturalhazardsportal.govt.nz/s/claims-map})} \end{itemize} \medskip \item Further develop interactive prototype: \begin{itemize} \item user study with Aukaha (\& broader community?) \item VR/AR? \end{itemize} \end{itemize} \end{frame} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{frame} \frametitle{Acknowledgements} \begin{itemize} \item Owyn for doing all the \emph{real} work! \faGrinBeam[regular] \medskip \item Otago: Katharina Ruckstuhl \& Brendon Woodford. \medskip \item Aukaha: Kate Timms-Dean, Michael Bathgate, Korako Edwards. \medskip \item STRAND: Ivan Diaz-Rainey, Tony Moore, Quyen Nguyen, …. \medskip \item ORC: Andrew Welsh. \medskip \item Ngā Pae o te Māramatanga. \end{itemize} \end{frame} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \begin{frame} \thispagestyle{empty} \centering \mbox{}\vfill \Huge{\textbf{\textcolor{structure}{THANK YOU}}} \bigskip\bigskip \large{\textbf{\textcolor{structure}{Questions?}}} \vfill\mbox{} \end{frame} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \end{document}

Ignore Space Show notes View

seminar.tex 0 → 100644

\documentclass{beamer}

\usepackage{booktabs}
\usepackage{fontawesome5}
\usepackage[no-math]{fontspec}
\usepackage{graphicx}
\usepackage[mode=text]{siunitx}
\usepackage{tcolorbox}
\usepackage{tikz}
\usepackage{xltxtra}
\usepackage{xunicode}

% Beamer setup
\mode<presentation>
{
    \usetheme{OtagoPlain}
    \setbeamertemplate{navigation symbols}{}
}

% TikZ setup
\usetikzlibrary{positioning}
\usetikzlibrary{calc}
\usetikzlibrary{arrows.meta}
\usetikzlibrary{shapes.geometric}

% fontspec setup
\defaultfontfeatures{Mapping=tex-text}
\setmainfont{Minion Pro}
\setsansfont[Scale=MatchUppercase,BoldFont={Open Sans}]{Open Sans Light}
\setmonofont[Scale=MatchLowercase]{Letter Gothic 12 Pitch}

% graphicx setup
\graphicspath{{images/}}

% Initialise hyperref.
% \inithyperref

% Sometimes we want to put a comment in tiny text on the next line, but the default line skip
% will insert too much vertical space. Put a \tinyskip at the end of the line instead.
\def\tinyskip{\\[-0.33\baselineskip]}

\newcommand{\highlight}[2][yellow!75]{\setlength{\fboxsep}{1pt}\hskip-1pt\colorbox{#1}{\vphantom{dy}#2}\hskip-1pt}

\title{Visualising the Impacts of Sea-level Rise}
\author{Nigel Stanger}
\date{15 September 2023}

\begin{document}

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

\begin{frame}
    \thispagestyle{empty}
    \titlepage
\end{frame}

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{It started with a ``simple'' question}
    
    \begin{tcolorbox}
        {How can we make the effects of climate change induced sea-level rise easier to understand for ``ordinary people''?}
    \end{tcolorbox}

\begin{itemize}
        \item The science can be difficult to grasp.
        \smallskip

\item Scientific data/visualisations are often too abstract:
        \begin{itemize}
            \item ``80cm of sea-level rise? What does that look like?''
            \item ``Will it affect my house?'' {\tiny (also important cultural/ecological/historical… sites)}
        \end{itemize}
    \end{itemize}

\begin{center}
        \includegraphics[height=3.5cm,keepaspectratio]{nz-projections.png} \\[-0.6em]
        {\tiny SOURCE: \href{https://environment.govt.nz/publications/interim-guidance-on-the-use-of-new-sea-level-rise-projections/}{\emph{Interim guidance on the use of new sea-level rise projections}} (Ministry for the Environment, 2022).}
    \end{center}
\end{frame}

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

\begin{frame}
    \thispagestyle{empty}
    \begin{tikzpicture}[remember picture, overlay]
        \node (headline) at ($(current page) + (0,0.5em)$) {
            \parbox{\columnwidth}{
                \fontspec{Noto Sans ExtraBold}
                \fontsize{18pt}{21.6pt}\selectfont
                South Dunedin residents keen to \\
                hear from scientists what climate \\
                change has in store
            }
        };
        \node[anchor=north east] at (headline.south east) {
            \footnotesize (Radio New Zealand, 2023-09-13)
        };
    \end{tikzpicture}
\end{frame}

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{First, some context}

\begin{center}
        \includegraphics[height=7.5cm,keepaspectratio]{gmd-13-3571-2020-f01-high-res.pdf} \\[-0.6em]
        {\tiny SOURCE: Meinshausen et al. (2020) \href{https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020}{The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas}} \\[-0.5em]
        {\tiny \href{https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020}{concentrations and their extensions to 2500}. \emph{Geoscientific Model Development} \textbf{13}:3571--3605. CC-BY-4.0.}
    \end{center}
\end{frame}

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs)}
    \framesubtitle{(\url{https://climatescenarios.org/primer/socioeconomic-development/})}

\bigskip
    \begin{itemize}
        \item IPCC AR5 (2014) used four \emph{Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)} to model future \emph{climatological} scenarios.
        \smallskip

\item AR6 uses five SSPs (2021) to model future \emph{socio-economic} scenarios: narratives of ``what the world could become''.
    \end{itemize}

\begin{center}
        \includegraphics[width=4.5cm, keepaspectratio]{SSPs.png}
    \end{center}
\end{frame}

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{What could this mean for New Zealand?}

\begin{center}
        \begin{tabular}{lr}
            \toprule
            \textbf{Pathway} & \textbf{Rise (2100)} \\
            \midrule
            Sustainability (RCP2.6) & $\approx$ \SI{45}{\centi\metre} \\
            Middle of the Road (RCP4.5) & $\approx$ \SI{55}{\centi\metre} \\
            Fossil-fueled Development (RCP8.5) & $\approx$ \SI{80}{\centi\metre} \\
            \bottomrule
            \multicolumn{2}{l}{\scriptsize\emph{Coastal hazards and climate change: Guidance for local government}} \\[-0.33em]
            \multicolumn{2}{l}{\scriptsize (Ministry for the Environment, 2017).} \\
        \end{tabular}
    \end{center}
    \medskip

\small
    \begin{columns}
        \begin{column}[T]{0.4\paperwidth}
            \textbf{\textcolor{structure}{Increased chance of}}
            \begin{itemize}
                \item storm surge
                \item coastal flooding
                \item higher water table
                \item groundwater contamination
                \item …
            \end{itemize}
        \end{column}
        \begin{column}[T]{0.4\paperwidth}
            \textbf{\textcolor{structure}{Potential damage to}}
            \begin{itemize}
                \item property \& infrastructure
                \item ecosystems {\tiny (e.g., wetlands)}
                \item cultural \& heritage sites
                \item …
            \end{itemize}
        \end{column}
    \end{columns}
\end{frame}

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{First steps (2021/2022)}

\begin{itemize}
        \item Summer scholarship via Katharina Ruckstuhl, late 2021:
        \begin{itemize}
            \item recruited Owyn Aitken (data science)
            \item in collaboration with Aukaha \tinyskip
            {\tiny (Ngāi Tahu environmental and social consultancy)}
        \end{itemize}
        \medskip

\item Goals:
        \begin{itemize}
            \item what data are available?
            \item basic visualisations (proof of concept)
            \item can we model sites of significance to Ngāi Tahu?
        \end{itemize}
    \end{itemize}

\begin{onlyenv}<2>
        \begin{tikzpicture}[remember picture, overlay]
            \node[anchor=east] at ($(current page.east) + (-5mm,5mm)$) {
                \includegraphics[width=3cm, keepaspectratio]{6002861.jpg}
            };
        \end{tikzpicture}
    \end{onlyenv}
\end{frame}

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{First outcomes (2021/2022)}

\begin{itemize}
        \item \emph{Lots} of potentially useful data:
        \begin{itemize}
            \item IPCC projections (global and ``downscaled'' for NZ)
            \item ORC natural hazards database layers: alluvial fans, flooding, coastal inundation {\tiny (including storm surge \& tsunami)}
            \item 2021 LiDAR DEM data via ORC and LINZ {\tiny (varying resolutions)}
            \item property values \& titles/borders (LINZ)
            \item groundwater data (GNS Science)
            \item \emph{Kā Huru Manu} Ngāi Tahu cultural atlas {\tiny (\url{https://kahurumanu.co.nz})}
            \item …and much more
        \end{itemize}
        \medskip
        
        \item Simple ``bathtub'' model of South Dunedin:
        \begin{itemize}
            \item IPCC scenarios: SSP1 (RCP2.6), SSP2 (RCP4.5), SSP5 (RCP8.5)
            \item sea level rise only; no groundwater, geology, storm surge, …
            \item not overly realistic, not predictive
            \item non-interactive visualisations
        \end{itemize}
        \medskip

\item Made connections with the STRAND project.
    \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{STRAND (Marsden)}
    \framesubtitle{(\url{https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/strandproject/})}

\begin{itemize}
        \item Initially led by Ivan Diaz-Rainey ($\Rightarrow$ Griffith), now Tony Moore.
        \medskip

\item Initial focus on ``climate-change flooding related risks to residential property values across space and time, and the related implications for financial stability.''
        \medskip

\item ArcGIS model with $\approx$ 40,000 layers that model outcomes of combinations of various factors. {\tiny (e.g., planning decisions)}
    \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Static overlays}

\includegraphics[height=4.9cm,keepaspectratio]{dunedin-dem.png}
    \hfill
    \includegraphics[height=4.9cm,keepaspectratio]{dunedin-buildings.png}
    \hfill
    \includegraphics[height=4.9cm,keepaspectratio]{dunedin-combined.png}
\end{frame}

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Static overlays}

\centering
    \includegraphics[width=\columnwidth,keepaspectratio]{south-dunedin-3d-view.png}
\end{frame}

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{3D video flyover}

\includegraphics[width=\columnwidth,keepaspectratio]{dunedin-3d-flyover.png}
\end{frame}

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Second stage (2022/2023)}

\bigskip
    \begin{itemize}
        \item Second summer scholarship, further work with STRAND.
        \medskip

\item Exploratory visualisations:
        \begin{itemize}
            \item flood risk analysis (Dunedin)
            \item road network connectivity (Banks Peninsula)
        \end{itemize}
    \end{itemize}
    \medskip

\begin{columns}
        \begin{column}[T]{0.35\paperwidth}
            \centering
            \textbf{\textcolor{structure}{Flood risk}} \\[0.2\baselineskip]
            \includegraphics[width=0.8\columnwidth, keepaspectratio]{banks-flood-risk.png}
        \end{column}
        \begin{column}[T]{0.45\paperwidth}
            \centering
            \textbf{\textcolor{structure}{Road network analysis}} \\[0.2\baselineskip]
            \includegraphics[width=\columnwidth, keepaspectratio]{banks-network-analysis.png}
        \end{column}
    \end{columns}
\end{frame}

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Ongoing work (2023)}

\begin{itemize}
        \item Upgraded interactive visualisations:
        \begin{itemize}
            \item migrated bathtub model to ArcGIS
            \item flood risk layer (direct impacts)
            \item road network connectivity layer (indirect impacts)
        \end{itemize}
        \medskip

\item Science Expo demonstration (July 1--2):
        \begin{itemize}
            \item a lot of interest
            \item quite evocative despite its limitations
            \item many ``wow'' moments
        \end{itemize}
    \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

\begin{frame}
    \centering
    \bigskip
    \includegraphics[height=4cm, keepaspectratio]{holger-expo-1.jpg} \\
    \includegraphics[height=4cm, keepaspectratio]{holger-expo-2.jpg} \tinyskip
    {\tiny (Photos by Holger Regenbrecht)}
\end{frame}

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Flood risk (direct)}

\centering
    \medskip
    \includegraphics[width=0.9\columnwidth, keepaspectratio]{expo-flood-2.pdf} \\[0.1em]
    \includegraphics[width=0.445\columnwidth, height=2.5cm]{expo-flood-1.pdf}
    \includegraphics[width=0.445\columnwidth, height=2.5cm]{expo-flood-3.pdf}
\end{frame}

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Road network connectivity (indirect)}

\centering
    \medskip
    \includegraphics[width=0.88\columnwidth, keepaspectratio]{expo-network-1.pdf} \\[0.1em]
    \includegraphics[width=0.435\columnwidth, height=2.45cm]{expo-network-2.pdf}
    \includegraphics[width=0.435\columnwidth, height=2.45cm]{expo-network-3.pdf}
\end{frame}

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Next steps}

\begin{itemize}
        \item We got funding! \faThumbsUp[regular]
        \begin{itemize}
            \item Ngā Pae o te Māramatanga 2023--2024 {\tiny (Matakitenga fund)}
            \item \emph{Mō ngā uri a muri ake nei: Supporting Te Tai o Araiteuru inter-generational decision-making through sea-rise visualisation}
            \item[$\Rightarrow$] Decision support tool for future planning. \tinyskip
            {\tiny (especially in sensitive areas)}
        \end{itemize}
        \medskip

\item Further collaboration \& modelling with Aukaha, e.g.:
        \begin{itemize}
            \item Kā Huru Manu private layers
            \item coastal archaeological sites
            \item Papanui Inlet, Waikouaiti River (Puketeraki)
            \item River restoration: Taieri (DOC, Ngā Awa), Te Hakapupu (ORC)
            \item housing projects
            \item …
            \item[\textbf{BUT:}] must respect data sovereignty, sensitivity, tikanga \tinyskip
            {\tiny (kaitiaki rūnaka remain in control)}
        \end{itemize}
    \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

% Lidar data for Dunedin (available through LINZ)
% DEM (Digital Elevation Model) data at varying resolutions for the whole country.
% Property values nationwide and property borders/tiles (the latter available through LINZ)
% Groundwater data from GNS Science
% They're looking at getting access to precipitation projections.
% Global IPCC seal level rises (which is very similar to regional sea level rise) 
% Infrastructure data available through LINZ/OpenStreetMaps - this could be used to model where sites would become inaccessible
% NIWA has storm surge/ coastal inundation models but apparently these are inaccurate/ still being redeveloped.
% Quyen suggested looking at drought data as well however STRAND doesn't currently focus on this.

% also EQC claims map: https://www.naturalhazardsportal.govt.nz/s/claims-map

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Next steps}

\begin{itemize}
        \item Integrate additional hazards/risks:
        \begin{itemize}
            \item storm surge (ORC, NIWA)
            \item groundwater (GNS Science, Ngāi Tahu)
            \item EQC claims {\tiny (\url{https://www.naturalhazardsportal.govt.nz/s/claims-map})}
        \end{itemize}
        \medskip

\item Further develop interactive prototype:
        \begin{itemize}
            \item user study with Aukaha (\& broader community?)
            \item VR/AR?
        \end{itemize}
    \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

\begin{frame}
    \frametitle{Acknowledgements}

\begin{itemize}
        \item Owyn for doing all the \emph{real} work! \faGrinBeam[regular]
        \medskip

\item Otago: Katharina Ruckstuhl \& Brendon Woodford.
        \medskip

\item Aukaha: Kate Timms-Dean, Michael Bathgate, Korako Edwards.
        \medskip
        
        \item STRAND: Ivan Diaz-Rainey, Tony Moore, Quyen Nguyen, ….
        \medskip
        
        \item ORC: Andrew Welsh.
        \medskip

\item Ngā Pae o te Māramatanga.
    \end{itemize}
\end{frame}

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

\begin{frame}
    \thispagestyle{empty}

\centering
    \mbox{}\vfill
    \Huge{\textbf{\textcolor{structure}{THANK YOU}}}
    \bigskip\bigskip

\large{\textbf{\textcolor{structure}{Questions?}}}
    \vfill\mbox{}
\end{frame}

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

\end{document}

Show line notes below