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- <title>UTas ePrints - On Long-Term Climate Studies Using a Coupled General Circulation Model</title>
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- <meta content="Phipps, Steven John" name="eprints.creators_name" />
- <meta content="thesis" name="eprints.type" />
- <meta content="2007-10-22 01:07:12" name="eprints.datestamp" />
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- <meta content="On Long-Term Climate Studies Using a
- Coupled General Circulation Model" name="eprints.title" />
- <meta content="unpub" name="eprints.ispublished" />
- <meta content="260400" name="eprints.subjects" />
- <meta content="260602" name="eprints.subjects" />
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- <meta content="Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models are the simplest models which
- are capable of simulating both the variability which occurs within each component
- of the climate system, and the variability which arises from the interactions between
- them. Only recently has it become computationally feasible to use coupled general
- circulation models to study climate variability and change on timescales of O(104)
- years and longer. Flux adjustments are often employed to maintain a control climate
- that is both stable and realistic; however, the magnitude of the adjustments
- represents a source of concern.
- This study employs the CSIRO Mk3L climate system model, a low-resolution
- coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean general circulation model. The atmospheric and
- oceanic components are spun up independently; the resulting atmospheric simulation
- is realistic, while the deep ocean is too cold, too fresh and too buoyant. The
- spin-up runs provide the initial conditions for the coupled model, which is used to
- conduct a 1400-year control simulation for pre-industrial conditions. After some
- initial adjustment, the simulated climate experiences minimal drift. The dominant
- mode of internal variability is found to exhibit the same spatial structure and correlations
- as the observed El Ni˜no-Southern Oscillation phenomenon.
- The ability of Mk3L to simulate the climate of the mid-Holocene is evaluated. It
- correctly simulates increased summer temperatures at northern mid-latitudes, and
- cooling in the tropics. However, it is unable to capture some of the regional-scale
- features of the mid-Holocene climate, with the precipitation over northern Africa
- being deficient. The model simulates a 13% reduction in the strength of El Ni˜no,
- a much smaller decrease than that implied by the palaeoclimate record.
- A 1400-year transient simulation is then conducted, in which the atmospheric
- CO2 concentration is stabilised at three times the pre-industrial value. The transient
- simulation exhibits a reduction in the rate of North Atlantic Deep Water formation,
- followed by its gradual recovery, and a cessation of Antarctic Bottom Water formation.
- The global-mean surface air temperature warms 2.7◦C upon a trebling of
- CO2, and 5.3◦C by the end of the simulation.
- A number of modifications to the spin-up procedure for the ocean model are
- evaluated. A phase shift in the prescribed sea surface temperatures and salinities is
- found to reduce the phase lag between the model and observations, and to lead to
- a reduction in the magnitude of the diagnosed flux adjustments. When this spin-up
- run is used to initialise the coupled model, the reduced flux adjustments are found
- to have negligible impact upon the nature of the internal variability. While the flux
- adjustments are not found to have any direct influence upon the response of the
- model to external forcing, they are found to have an indirect influence via their
- effect upon the rate of drift within the control simulation.
- An iterative spin-up technique is also developed, whereby the response of the
- ocean model is used to derive a set of effective surface tracers. These result in a
- much more realistic vertical density profile within the ocean. The coupled model
- exhibits slightly increased internal variability, with reduced convection within the
- ocean. There is a slightly greater surface warming in response to an increase in
- the atmospheric CO2 concentration, with the reduced convection resulting in slower
- penetration of the surface warming to depth." name="eprints.abstract" />
- <meta content="2006-11" name="eprints.date" />
- <meta content="submitted" name="eprints.date_type" />
- <meta content="314" name="eprints.pages" />
- <meta content="University of Tasmania" name="eprints.institution" />
- <meta content="Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems CRC" name="eprints.department" />
- <meta content="phd" name="eprints.thesis_type" />
- <meta content="Phipps, Steven John (2006) On Long-Term Climate Studies Using a Coupled General Circulation Model. PhD thesis, University of Tasmania." name="eprints.citation" />
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- <meta content="On Long-Term Climate Studies Using a
- Coupled General Circulation Model" name="DC.title" />
- <meta content="Phipps, Steven John" name="DC.creator" />
- <meta content="260400 Oceanography" name="DC.subject" />
- <meta content="260602 Climatology (incl. Palaeoclimatology)" name="DC.subject" />
- <meta content="Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models are the simplest models which
- are capable of simulating both the variability which occurs within each component
- of the climate system, and the variability which arises from the interactions between
- them. Only recently has it become computationally feasible to use coupled general
- circulation models to study climate variability and change on timescales of O(104)
- years and longer. Flux adjustments are often employed to maintain a control climate
- that is both stable and realistic; however, the magnitude of the adjustments
- represents a source of concern.
- This study employs the CSIRO Mk3L climate system model, a low-resolution
- coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean general circulation model. The atmospheric and
- oceanic components are spun up independently; the resulting atmospheric simulation
- is realistic, while the deep ocean is too cold, too fresh and too buoyant. The
- spin-up runs provide the initial conditions for the coupled model, which is used to
- conduct a 1400-year control simulation for pre-industrial conditions. After some
- initial adjustment, the simulated climate experiences minimal drift. The dominant
- mode of internal variability is found to exhibit the same spatial structure and correlations
- as the observed El Ni˜no-Southern Oscillation phenomenon.
- The ability of Mk3L to simulate the climate of the mid-Holocene is evaluated. It
- correctly simulates increased summer temperatures at northern mid-latitudes, and
- cooling in the tropics. However, it is unable to capture some of the regional-scale
- features of the mid-Holocene climate, with the precipitation over northern Africa
- being deficient. The model simulates a 13% reduction in the strength of El Ni˜no,
- a much smaller decrease than that implied by the palaeoclimate record.
- A 1400-year transient simulation is then conducted, in which the atmospheric
- CO2 concentration is stabilised at three times the pre-industrial value. The transient
- simulation exhibits a reduction in the rate of North Atlantic Deep Water formation,
- followed by its gradual recovery, and a cessation of Antarctic Bottom Water formation.
- The global-mean surface air temperature warms 2.7◦C upon a trebling of
- CO2, and 5.3◦C by the end of the simulation.
- A number of modifications to the spin-up procedure for the ocean model are
- evaluated. A phase shift in the prescribed sea surface temperatures and salinities is
- found to reduce the phase lag between the model and observations, and to lead to
- a reduction in the magnitude of the diagnosed flux adjustments. When this spin-up
- run is used to initialise the coupled model, the reduced flux adjustments are found
- to have negligible impact upon the nature of the internal variability. While the flux
- adjustments are not found to have any direct influence upon the response of the
- model to external forcing, they are found to have an indirect influence via their
- effect upon the rate of drift within the control simulation.
- An iterative spin-up technique is also developed, whereby the response of the
- ocean model is used to derive a set of effective surface tracers. These result in a
- much more realistic vertical density profile within the ocean. The coupled model
- exhibits slightly increased internal variability, with reduced convection within the
- ocean. There is a slightly greater surface warming in response to an increase in
- the atmospheric CO2 concentration, with the reduced convection resulting in slower
- penetration of the surface warming to depth." name="DC.description" />
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- <h1 class="ep_tm_pagetitle">On Long-Term Climate Studies Using a Coupled General Circulation Model</h1>
- <p style="margin-bottom: 1em" class="not_ep_block"><span class="person_name">Phipps, Steven John</span> (2006) <xhtml:em>On Long-Term Climate Studies Using a Coupled General Circulation Model.</xhtml:em> PhD thesis, University of Tasmania.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 1em" class="not_ep_block"></p><table style="margin-bottom: 1em" class="not_ep_block"><tr><td valign="top" style="text-align:center"><a onmouseover="EPJS_ShowPreview( event, 'doc_preview_2879' );" href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/2278/1/01FRONT.PDF" onmouseout="EPJS_HidePreview( event, 'doc_preview_2879' );"><img alt="[img]" src="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/style/images/fileicons/application_pdf.png" class="ep_doc_icon" border="0" /></a><div class="ep_preview" id="doc_preview_2879"><table><tr><td><img alt="" src="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/2278/thumbnails/1/preview.png" class="ep_preview_image" border="0" /><div class="ep_preview_title">Preview</div></td></tr></table></div></td><td valign="top"><a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/2278/1/01FRONT.PDF"><span class="ep_document_citation">PDF (Front Matter)</span></a> - 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Requires a PDF viewer<br />67Kb</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" style="text-align:center"><a onmouseover="EPJS_ShowPreview( event, 'doc_preview_2888' );" href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/2278/10/10APPEND.PDF" onmouseout="EPJS_HidePreview( event, 'doc_preview_2888' );"><img alt="[img]" src="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/style/images/fileicons/application_pdf.png" class="ep_doc_icon" border="0" /></a><div class="ep_preview" id="doc_preview_2888"><table><tr><td><img alt="" src="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/2278/thumbnails/10/preview.png" class="ep_preview_image" border="0" /><div class="ep_preview_title">Preview</div></td></tr></table></div></td><td valign="top"><a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/2278/10/10APPEND.PDF"><span class="ep_document_citation">PDF (Appendices)</span></a> - Requires a PDF viewer<br />77Kb</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" style="text-align:center"><a onmouseover="EPJS_ShowPreview( event, 'doc_preview_2889' );" href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/2278/11/11BIBLIO.PDF" onmouseout="EPJS_HidePreview( event, 'doc_preview_2889' );"><img alt="[img]" src="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/style/images/fileicons/application_pdf.png" class="ep_doc_icon" border="0" /></a><div class="ep_preview" id="doc_preview_2889"><table><tr><td><img alt="" src="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/2278/thumbnails/11/preview.png" class="ep_preview_image" border="0" /><div class="ep_preview_title">Preview</div></td></tr></table></div></td><td valign="top"><a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/2278/11/11BIBLIO.PDF"><span class="ep_document_citation">PDF (Bibliography)</span></a> - Requires a PDF viewer<br />139Kb</td></tr></table><div class="not_ep_block"><h2>Abstract</h2><p style="padding-bottom: 16px; text-align: left; margin: 1em auto 0em auto">Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models are the simplest models which
- are capable of simulating both the variability which occurs within each component
- of the climate system, and the variability which arises from the interactions between
- them. Only recently has it become computationally feasible to use coupled general
- circulation models to study climate variability and change on timescales of O(104)
- years and longer. Flux adjustments are often employed to maintain a control climate
- that is both stable and realistic; however, the magnitude of the adjustments
- represents a source of concern.
- This study employs the CSIRO Mk3L climate system model, a low-resolution
- coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean general circulation model. The atmospheric and
- oceanic components are spun up independently; the resulting atmospheric simulation
- is realistic, while the deep ocean is too cold, too fresh and too buoyant. The
- spin-up runs provide the initial conditions for the coupled model, which is used to
- conduct a 1400-year control simulation for pre-industrial conditions. After some
- initial adjustment, the simulated climate experiences minimal drift. The dominant
- mode of internal variability is found to exhibit the same spatial structure and correlations
- as the observed El Ni˜no-Southern Oscillation phenomenon.
- The ability of Mk3L to simulate the climate of the mid-Holocene is evaluated. It
- correctly simulates increased summer temperatures at northern mid-latitudes, and
- cooling in the tropics. However, it is unable to capture some of the regional-scale
- features of the mid-Holocene climate, with the precipitation over northern Africa
- being deficient. The model simulates a 13% reduction in the strength of El Ni˜no,
- a much smaller decrease than that implied by the palaeoclimate record.
- A 1400-year transient simulation is then conducted, in which the atmospheric
- CO2 concentration is stabilised at three times the pre-industrial value. The transient
- simulation exhibits a reduction in the rate of North Atlantic Deep Water formation,
- followed by its gradual recovery, and a cessation of Antarctic Bottom Water formation.
- The global-mean surface air temperature warms 2.7◦C upon a trebling of
- CO2, and 5.3◦C by the end of the simulation.
- A number of modifications to the spin-up procedure for the ocean model are
- evaluated. A phase shift in the prescribed sea surface temperatures and salinities is
- found to reduce the phase lag between the model and observations, and to lead to
- a reduction in the magnitude of the diagnosed flux adjustments. When this spin-up
- run is used to initialise the coupled model, the reduced flux adjustments are found
- to have negligible impact upon the nature of the internal variability. While the flux
- adjustments are not found to have any direct influence upon the response of the
- model to external forcing, they are found to have an indirect influence via their
- effect upon the rate of drift within the control simulation.
- An iterative spin-up technique is also developed, whereby the response of the
- ocean model is used to derive a set of effective surface tracers. These result in a
- much more realistic vertical density profile within the ocean. The coupled model
- exhibits slightly increased internal variability, with reduced convection within the
- ocean. There is a slightly greater surface warming in response to an increase in
- the atmospheric CO2 concentration, with the reduced convection resulting in slower
- penetration of the surface warming to depth.</p></div><table style="margin-bottom: 1em" cellpadding="3" class="not_ep_block" border="0"><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Item Type:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">Thesis (PhD)</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Subjects:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row"><a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/view/subjects/260400.html">260000 Earth Sciences > 260400 Oceanography</a><br /><a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/view/subjects/260602.html">260000 Earth Sciences > 260600 Atmospheric Sciences > 260602 Climatology (incl. Palaeoclimatology)</a></td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">ID Code:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">2278</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Deposited By:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row"><span class="ep_name_citation"><span class="person_name">MS Heather Excell</span></span></td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Deposited On:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">22 Oct 2007 12:07</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Last Modified:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">09 Jan 2008 02:30</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">ePrint Statistics:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row"><a target="ePrintStats" href="/es/index.php?action=show_detail_eprint;id=2278;">View statistics for this ePrint</a></td></tr></table><p align="right">Repository Staff Only: <a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/cgi/users/home?screen=EPrint::View&eprintid=2278">item control page</a></p>
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