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<title>UTas ePrints - Assessment of mangrove response to projected relative sea-level rise and recent historical reconstruction of shoreline position</title>
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<meta content="Gilman, E." name="eprints.creators_name" />
<meta content="Ellison, J.C." name="eprints.creators_name" />
<meta content="Coleman, Richard" name="eprints.creators_name" />
<meta content="egilman@utas.edu.au" name="eprints.creators_id" />
<meta content="Joanna.Ellison@utas.edu.au" name="eprints.creators_id" />
<meta content="Richard.Coleman@utas.edu.au" name="eprints.creators_id" />
<meta content="article" name="eprints.type" />
<meta content="2008-01-28T23:13:01Z" name="eprints.datestamp" />
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<meta content="Assessment of mangrove response to projected relative
sea-level rise and recent historical reconstruction
of shoreline position" name="eprints.title" />
<meta content="pub" name="eprints.ispublished" />
<meta content="300803" name="eprints.subjects" />
<meta content="restricted" name="eprints.full_text_status" />
<meta content="American Samoa . Coastal . Erosion .
Mangrove . Sea-level rise . Wetland" name="eprints.keywords" />
<meta content="The original publication is available at www.springerlink.com
" name="eprints.note" />
<meta content="We predict the decadal change in position of
three American Samoa mangroves from analysis of a
time series of remotely sensed imagery, a geographic
information system, tide gauge data, and projections
for change in sea-level relative to the mangrove surface.
Accurate predictions of changes to coastal ecosystem
boundaries, including in response to projected relative
sea-level rise, enable advanced planning to minimize
and offset anticipated losses and minimize social disruption
and cost of reducing threats to coastal development
and human safety. The observed mean landward
migration of three mangroves’ seaward margins
over four decades was 25, 64, and 72mma−1, 12 to
37 times the observed relative sea-level rise rate. Two
of the sites had clear trends in reductions in mangrove
area, where there was a highly significant correlation
between the change in position of the seaward mangrove
margin and change in relative sea-level. Here
it can be inferred that the force of sea-level rise relative
to the mangrove surface is causing landward migration.
Shoreline movement was variable at a third
site and not significantly correlated with changing sealevel,
where it is likely that forces other than change in
relative sea-level are predominant. Currently, 16.5%,23.4%, and 68.0% of the three mangroves’ landward
margins are obstructed by coastal development from
natural landward migration. The three mangroves could
experience as high as a 50.0% reduction in area by
the year 2100. A 12% reduction in mangrove area
by the year 2100 is possible in the Pacific islands
region." name="eprints.abstract" />
<meta content="2007-01" name="eprints.date" />
<meta content="published" name="eprints.date_type" />
<meta content="Environmental Monitoring Assessment" name="eprints.publication" />
<meta content="124" name="eprints.volume" />
<meta content="1- 3" name="eprints.number" />
<meta content="105-130" name="eprints.pagerange" />
<meta content="10.1007/s10661-006-9212-y" name="eprints.id_number" />
<meta content="TRUE" name="eprints.refereed" />
<meta content="0167-6369" name="eprints.issn" />
<meta content="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10661-006-9212-y" name="eprints.official_url" />
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<meta content="Assessment of mangrove response to projected relative
sea-level rise and recent historical reconstruction
of shoreline position" name="DC.title" />
<meta content="Gilman, E." name="DC.creator" />
<meta content="Ellison, J.C." name="DC.creator" />
<meta content="Coleman, Richard" name="DC.creator" />
<meta content="300803 Natural Resource Management" name="DC.subject" />
<meta content="We predict the decadal change in position of
three American Samoa mangroves from analysis of a
time series of remotely sensed imagery, a geographic
information system, tide gauge data, and projections
for change in sea-level relative to the mangrove surface.
Accurate predictions of changes to coastal ecosystem
boundaries, including in response to projected relative
sea-level rise, enable advanced planning to minimize
and offset anticipated losses and minimize social disruption
and cost of reducing threats to coastal development
and human safety. The observed mean landward
migration of three mangroves’ seaward margins
over four decades was 25, 64, and 72mma−1, 12 to
37 times the observed relative sea-level rise rate. Two
of the sites had clear trends in reductions in mangrove
area, where there was a highly significant correlation
between the change in position of the seaward mangrove
margin and change in relative sea-level. Here
it can be inferred that the force of sea-level rise relative
to the mangrove surface is causing landward migration.
Shoreline movement was variable at a third
site and not significantly correlated with changing sealevel,
where it is likely that forces other than change in
relative sea-level are predominant. Currently, 16.5%,23.4%, and 68.0% of the three mangroves’ landward
margins are obstructed by coastal development from
natural landward migration. The three mangroves could
experience as high as a 50.0% reduction in area by
the year 2100. A 12% reduction in mangrove area
by the year 2100 is possible in the Pacific islands
region." name="DC.description" />
<meta content="2007-01" name="DC.date" />
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<h1 class="ep_tm_pagetitle">Assessment of mangrove response to projected relative sea-level rise and recent historical reconstruction of shoreline position</h1>
<p style="margin-bottom: 1em" class="not_ep_block"><span class="person_name">Gilman, E.</span> and <span class="person_name">Ellison, J.C.</span> and <span class="person_name">Coleman, Richard</span> (2007) <xhtml:em>Assessment of mangrove response to projected relative sea-level rise and recent historical reconstruction of shoreline position.</xhtml:em> Environmental Monitoring Assessment, 124 (1- 3). pp. 105-130. ISSN 0167-6369</p><p style="margin-bottom: 1em" class="not_ep_block"></p><table style="margin-bottom: 1em" class="not_ep_block"><tr><td valign="top" style="text-align:center"><a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/3056/1/Gilman_et_al07_.pdf"><img alt="[img]" src="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/style/images/fileicons/application_pdf.png" class="ep_doc_icon" border="0" /></a></td><td valign="top"><a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/3056/1/Gilman_et_al07_.pdf"><span class="ep_document_citation">PDF</span></a> - Full text restricted - Requires a PDF viewer<br />1497Kb</td><td><form method="get" accept-charset="utf-8" action="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/cgi/request_doc"><input accept-charset="utf-8" value="4191" name="docid" type="hidden" /><div class=""><input value="Request a copy" name="_action_null" class="ep_form_action_button" onclick="return EPJS_button_pushed( '_action_null' )" type="submit" /> </div></form></td></tr></table><p style="margin-bottom: 1em" class="not_ep_block">Official URL: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10661-006-9212-y">http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10661-006-9212-y</a></p><div class="not_ep_block"><h2>Abstract</h2><p style="padding-bottom: 16px; text-align: left; margin: 1em auto 0em auto">We predict the decadal change in position of
three American Samoa mangroves from analysis of a
time series of remotely sensed imagery, a geographic
information system, tide gauge data, and projections
for change in sea-level relative to the mangrove surface.
Accurate predictions of changes to coastal ecosystem
boundaries, including in response to projected relative
sea-level rise, enable advanced planning to minimize
and offset anticipated losses and minimize social disruption
and cost of reducing threats to coastal development
and human safety. The observed mean landward
migration of three mangroves’ seaward margins
over four decades was 25, 64, and 72mma−1, 12 to
37 times the observed relative sea-level rise rate. Two
of the sites had clear trends in reductions in mangrove
area, where there was a highly significant correlation
between the change in position of the seaward mangrove
margin and change in relative sea-level. Here
it can be inferred that the force of sea-level rise relative
to the mangrove surface is causing landward migration.
Shoreline movement was variable at a third
site and not significantly correlated with changing sealevel,
where it is likely that forces other than change in
relative sea-level are predominant. Currently, 16.5%,23.4%, and 68.0% of the three mangroves’ landward
margins are obstructed by coastal development from
natural landward migration. The three mangroves could
experience as high as a 50.0% reduction in area by
the year 2100. A 12% reduction in mangrove area
by the year 2100 is possible in the Pacific islands
region.</p></div><table style="margin-bottom: 1em" cellpadding="3" class="not_ep_block" border="0"><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Item Type:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">Article</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Additional Information:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">The original publication is available at www.springerlink.com
</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Keywords:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">American Samoa . Coastal . Erosion .
Mangrove . Sea-level rise . Wetland</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Subjects:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row"><a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/view/subjects/300803.html">300000 Agricultural, Veterinary and Environmental Sciences > 300800 Environmental Sciences > 300803 Natural Resource Management</a></td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Collections:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">UNSPECIFIED</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">ID Code:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">3056</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Deposited By:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row"><span class="ep_name_citation"><span class="person_name">Dr Joanna Ellison</span></span></td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Deposited On:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">29 Jan 2008 10:13</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Last Modified:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">29 Jan 2008 10:13</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">ePrint Statistics:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row"><a target="ePrintStats" href="/es/index.php?action=show_detail_eprint;id=3056;">View statistics for this ePrint</a></td></tr></table><p align="right">Repository Staff Only: <a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/cgi/users/home?screen=EPrint::View&eprintid=3056">item control page</a></p>
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