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<title>UTas ePrints - Uncertainty in Palaeoclimatic Reconstructions Based on Leaf Physiognomy</title>
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<meta content="There are several methods of predicting terrestrial palaeoclimates from the size and shape of fossil leaves (foliar physiognomy). The assumptions and sources of uncertainty of these methods are considered and used to determine the true uncertainty. Their ability to predict mean annual temperature (MAT) is poor. The approximate standard errors for samples of living vegetation in North America are in the range 1.7 - 2.5 degrees C, but the true uncertainty for fossil samples is higher. Specimens with very different physiognomy to typical specimens in the model have higher uncertainties. Besides these uncertainties, the processes of fossilisation, the allocation of specimens to taxa, and the effects of other factors on foliar physiognomy all increase the uncertainty of the predictions. Overall uncertainties in the predictions of MAT are equivalent to standard errors of about 3 - 5 degrees C depending on the nature of the fossil site and flora. Other factors affect foliar physiognomic predictions significantly because predicted MAT does not change as rapidly with altitude as true MAT, and floras from different parts of the world with similar temperatures give different temperature predictions. MAT and one precipitation parameter (probably mean annual precipitation or the growing season precipitation) can be predicted more or less independently, although the predictions of precipitation are weak. Physiognomic signals for other climatic parameters are weak or apparently non-existent, and previously published predictions of past equability are primarily based on correlations with modern MAT, rather than physiognomy." name="eprints.abstract" />
<meta content="1997" name="eprints.date" />
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<meta content="Australian Journal of Botany" name="eprints.publication" />
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<meta content="Bailey, I. W., and Sinnott, E. W. (1916). The climatic distribution of certain kinds of angiosperm leaves. American Journal of Botany 3, 24-39.
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Jacobs, B. F. and Deino, A. B. (1996). Test of climate-leaf physiognomy regression models, their application to two Miocene floras from Kenya, and 40Ar/39Ar dating of the Late Miocene Kapturo site. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology and Palaeoecology 123, 259-271.
Jordan, G. J. (in press). Eocene continental climates and latitudinal temperature gradients: Comment. Geology
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Read, J. and Francis, J. (1992). Responses of some Southern Hemisphere tree species to a prolonged dark period and their implications for high-latitude Cretaceous and Tertiary floras. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology and Palaeoecology 99, 271-290.
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Spicer, R. A. (1989). The formation and interpretation of plant fossil assemblages. Advances in Botanical Research 16, 95-191.
Ter Braak, C. J. F. (1988). CANOCO - a FORTRAN program for canonical community ordination by (partial) (detrended) (canonical) correspondence analysis, principle components analysis and redundancy analysis (version 2.1). (Groep Landbouwwiskunde: Wageningen, The Netherlands.)
Wing, S. L., and Greenwood, D. R. (1993). Fossils and fossil climates: the case for equable continental interiors in the Eocene. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B 341, 243-252.
Wolfe, J. A. (1979). Temperature parameters of the humid to mesic forests of eastern Asia and their relation to forest of other regions of the Northern Hemisphere and Australasia. U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1106.
Wolfe, J. A. (1990). Palaeobotanical evidence for a marked temperature increase following the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary. Nature 343, 153-156.
Wolfe, J. A. (1993). A method of obtaining climatic parameters from leaf assemblages. U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 2041.
Wolfe, J. A. (1995). Palaeoclimatic estimates from Tertiary leaf assemblages. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 23, 119-142.
Wolfe, J. A., and Upchurch, G. R. (1987). Leaf assemblages across the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary in the Raton Basin, New Mexico and Colorado. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, U. S. A. 84, 5096-5100.
Woodcock, D. W. (1992). Climate reconstruction based on biological indicators. The Quarterly Review of Botany 67, 457-477.
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<meta content="There are several methods of predicting terrestrial palaeoclimates from the size and shape of fossil leaves (foliar physiognomy). The assumptions and sources of uncertainty of these methods are considered and used to determine the true uncertainty. Their ability to predict mean annual temperature (MAT) is poor. The approximate standard errors for samples of living vegetation in North America are in the range 1.7 - 2.5 degrees C, but the true uncertainty for fossil samples is higher. Specimens with very different physiognomy to typical specimens in the model have higher uncertainties. Besides these uncertainties, the processes of fossilisation, the allocation of specimens to taxa, and the effects of other factors on foliar physiognomy all increase the uncertainty of the predictions. Overall uncertainties in the predictions of MAT are equivalent to standard errors of about 3 - 5 degrees C depending on the nature of the fossil site and flora. Other factors affect foliar physiognomic predictions significantly because predicted MAT does not change as rapidly with altitude as true MAT, and floras from different parts of the world with similar temperatures give different temperature predictions. MAT and one precipitation parameter (probably mean annual precipitation or the growing season precipitation) can be predicted more or less independently, although the predictions of precipitation are weak. Physiognomic signals for other climatic parameters are weak or apparently non-existent, and previously published predictions of past equability are primarily based on correlations with modern MAT, rather than physiognomy." name="DC.description" />
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<h1 class="ep_tm_pagetitle">Uncertainty in Palaeoclimatic Reconstructions Based on Leaf Physiognomy</h1>
<p style="margin-bottom: 1em" class="not_ep_block"><span class="person_name">Jordan, Gregory J.</span> (1997) <xhtml:em>Uncertainty in Palaeoclimatic Reconstructions Based on Leaf Physiognomy.</xhtml:em> Australian Journal of Botany, 45 (3). pp. 527-547.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 1em" class="not_ep_block"></p><table style="margin-bottom: 1em" class="not_ep_block"><tr><td valign="top" style="text-align:center"><a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/1758/1/diatribe_preprint.pdf"><img alt="[img]" src="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/style/images/fileicons/application_pdf.png" border="0" class="ep_doc_icon" /></a></td><td valign="top"><a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/1758/1/diatribe_preprint.pdf"><span class="ep_document_citation">PDF</span></a> - Full text restricted - Requires a PDF viewer<br />224Kb</td><td><form method="get" accept-charset="utf-8" action="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/cgi/request_doc"><input value="2246" name="docid" accept-charset="utf-8" type="hidden" /><div class=""><input value="Request a copy" name="_action_null" class="ep_form_action_button" onclick="return EPJS_button_pushed( '_action_null' )" type="submit" /> </div></form></td></tr></table><p style="margin-bottom: 1em" class="not_ep_block">Official URL: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/BT96035">http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/BT96035</a></p><div class="not_ep_block"><h2>Abstract</h2><p style="padding-bottom: 16px; text-align: left; margin: 1em auto 0em auto">There are several methods of predicting terrestrial palaeoclimates from the size and shape of fossil leaves (foliar physiognomy). The assumptions and sources of uncertainty of these methods are considered and used to determine the true uncertainty. Their ability to predict mean annual temperature (MAT) is poor. The approximate standard errors for samples of living vegetation in North America are in the range 1.7 - 2.5 degrees C, but the true uncertainty for fossil samples is higher. Specimens with very different physiognomy to typical specimens in the model have higher uncertainties. Besides these uncertainties, the processes of fossilisation, the allocation of specimens to taxa, and the effects of other factors on foliar physiognomy all increase the uncertainty of the predictions. Overall uncertainties in the predictions of MAT are equivalent to standard errors of about 3 - 5 degrees C depending on the nature of the fossil site and flora. Other factors affect foliar physiognomic predictions significantly because predicted MAT does not change as rapidly with altitude as true MAT, and floras from different parts of the world with similar temperatures give different temperature predictions. MAT and one precipitation parameter (probably mean annual precipitation or the growing season precipitation) can be predicted more or less independently, although the predictions of precipitation are weak. Physiognomic signals for other climatic parameters are weak or apparently non-existent, and previously published predictions of past equability are primarily based on correlations with modern MAT, rather than physiognomy.</p></div><table style="margin-bottom: 1em" border="0" cellpadding="3" class="not_ep_block"><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Item Type:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">Article</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Additional Information:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">The definitive version is available online at http://www.publish.csiro.au/nid/65.htm</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Keywords:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">foliar physiognomy, CLAMP, LMA, leaf margin analysis</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Subjects:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row"><a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/view/subjects/270705.html">270000 Biological Sciences > 270700 Ecology and Evolution > 270705 Palaeoecology</a><br /><a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/view/subjects/260112.html">260000 Earth Sciences > 260100 Geology > 260112 Palaeontology</a></td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Collections:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">UNSPECIFIED</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">ID Code:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">1758</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Deposited By:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row"><span class="ep_name_citation"><span class="person_name">dr gregory j jordan</span></span></td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Deposited On:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">03 Sep 2007</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Last Modified:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">12 Feb 2008 12:32</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">ePrint Statistics:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row"><a target="ePrintStats" href="/es/index.php?action=show_detail_eprint;id=1758;">View statistics for this ePrint</a></td></tr></table><p align="right">Repository Staff Only: <a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/cgi/users/home?screen=EPrint::View&eprintid=1758">item control page</a></p>
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