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<meta content="O'Connor, M.H." name="eprints.creators_name" />
<meta content="MacFarlane, M.J." name="eprints.creators_name" />
<meta content="Fisher, J." name="eprints.creators_name" />
<meta content="MacRae, D." name="eprints.creators_name" />
<meta content="Lefroy, E.C." name="eprints.creators_name" />
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<meta content="The Avon River Basin in 2050: scenario planning in the Western Australian Wheatbelt" name="eprints.title" />
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<meta content="Scenario planning was used to identify issues and drivers of change that are relevant to community efforts to improve regional prospects in the Western Australian Wheatbelt. The region, some 20 million hectares in area, is under pressure to respond to a variety of environmental (salinity, erosion, acidification, biodiversity decline), economic (declining agricultural terms of trade), and social forces (rural decline, isolation). Regional strategic plans have been increasingly seen as the means of achieving sustainability in the face of these challenges, but until recently typically had single-activity outlook and timeframes of up to a decade into the future. Systematic futures-based research has been used in various regions to avoid reliance on business-as-usual as the default strategy, and to identify opportunities and challenges not presently apparent. The Avon River Basin, the central region of the Wheatbelt, was selected as the geographic focus of the project, and the time horizon was set at 2050. The project was developed by a group of 50 stakeholders from the basin, with expertise and strategic interests across a wide range of economic, social, and environmental themes. Through a series of workshops the stakeholders identified critical issues and their attendant drivers, then documented relevant past trends. Four regional scenarios, Saline Growth, Grain and Drain, Landcare Bounty, and Harmony with Prosperity, were developed based on positive and negative combinations of 2 clusters of uncertain and important drivers: environmental change and access to new markets. Common opportunities, threats, and critical success factors for the Avon River Basin region out to 2050 were also identified. We also found that the stakeholders have a tendency to strive for positive outcomes despite negative initial conditions. This resulted in 4 scenarios that were superficially similar due to the regional scale of analysis and the continuation of agricultural industries as significant shapers of economy, society, and environment. However, each scenario represents profoundly different outcomes for the residents and communities of the Avon River Basin in 2050. The triple-bottom line outcomes for the Avon River Basin in 2050 were estimated to be in the range 4.9–9.7 Mt of wheat (currently 4.0), 46 000–66 000 people (currently 43 000), and 10–30% of farmland salinised (currently 6). The application of these results to other regions in Australia is discussed.
" name="eprints.abstract" />
<meta content="2005-06-24" name="eprints.date" />
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<meta content="Australian Journal of Agricultural Research" name="eprints.publication" />
<meta content="56" name="eprints.volume" />
<meta content="6" name="eprints.number" />
<meta content="563-580" name="eprints.pagerange" />
<meta content="10.1071/AR04195" name="eprints.id_number" />
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<meta content="0004-9409" name="eprints.issn" />
<meta content="http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/AR04195" name="eprints.official_url" />
<meta content="Australian Bureau of Statistics (1996) ‘Census of population and housing.’ (ABS: Canberra, ACT)
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2001) ‘Census of population and housing.’ (ABS: Canberra, ACT)
Australian Business Foundation (2000) Alternative futures for business in Australia to the year 2015: towards strategies. A report by GBN Australia for the ABF, Australian Business Foundation, North Sydney, NSW.
Avon Catchment Council (2004) The Avon NRM strategy: the regional resource management strategy for the Avon River Basin. First draft version 9, Avon Catchment Council, Northam, W. Aust.
Bartle JR, Shea SR (2002) Development of mallee as a large-scale crop for the wheatbelt of WA. In ‘Private forestry sustainable, accountable and profitable: Proceedings Australian Forest Growers 2002 National Conference’. (Australian Forest Growers Association: Canberra, ACT)
Cocks KD (2003) ‘Deep futures: our prospects for survival.’ (University of NSW Press: Sydney, NSW)
CSIRO (2004) ‘Avon River Basin 2050. Water for a healthy country: Research.’ (CSIRO: Canberra, ACT) www.arb2050.com
Enecon PL (2001) Integrated tree processing of mallee eucalypts. Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation, Publication 01/160, Canberra, ACT.
Government of Western Australia (2001) Avon ARC: Avon Arc sub-regional strategy. Western Australian Planning Commission, Perth, W. Aust.
Government of Western Australia (2002) Western Australia tomorrow: Population projections for the statistical divisions, planning regions and local government areas of Western Australia. Government of Western Australia, Population Report No. 4, Perth, W. Aust.
Grains Research and Development Corporation (2004) ‘Towards a single vision for the Australian Grains Industry 2005–2025.’ (Grains Research and Development Corporation: Canberra, ACT)
Harper P (2000) The end in sight? Some speculations on environmental trends in the twenty-first century. Futures 32, 361–384.
[CrossRef]
Hulse D, Gregory S, Baker J (2002) ‘Willamette River Basin Planning Atlas: Trajectories of environmental and ecological change.’ (Oregon State University Press: Eugene, OR)
de Jouvenel H (2000) A brief methodological guide to scenario building. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 65, 37–48.
[CrossRef]
Keighery G, Halse S, McKenzie N (2001) Why wheatbelt valleys are valuable and vulnerable: the ecology of wheatbelt valleys and threats to their survival. In ‘Dealing with salinity in wheatbelt valleys: processes, prospects and practical options. Proceedings of the Wheatbelt Valleys Conference’. 30 July–1 August 2001. (Water and Rivers Commission: Perth, W. Aust.)
Murray–Darling Basin Commission (2001) Integrated catchment management in the Murray–Darling Basin 2001–2010. Murray–Darling Basin Ministerial Council, Canberra, ACT.
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[CrossRef] [Medline]
O’Connor MH, McFarlane M, MacRae D, Lefroy EC (2004) Avon River Basin 2050: four regional scenarios for the next half-century. A report prepared for the partners of the ARB2050 project. CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country flagship project and CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Canberra, ACT.
Schwartz P (1996) ‘The art of the long view: paths to strategic insight for yourself and your company.’ (Richmond Ventures: Sydney, NSW)
Schwartz P, Leyden P, Hyatt J (2000) ‘The long boom: a vision for the coming age of prosperity.’ (Orion Business: London)
The West Australian (2003) Wheatbelt: heartland of WA [newspaper article]. 6 August 2003.
Tindale NB (1974) ‘Aboriginal tribes of Australia.’ (Australian National University Press: Canberra, ACT)
Australia URS (2003) ‘Indicators of regional development in Western Australia.’ (Department of Local Government and Regional Development: Perth, W. Aust.)
Viney NR, Sivapalan M (2001) Modelling catchment processes in the Swan-Avon river basin. Hydrological Processes 15, 2671–2685.
[CrossRef]
Water and Rivers Commission and Avon River Management Authority (1999) River Recovery Plan Section 3 – Toodyay. Water and Rivers Commission and Avon River Management Authority, River Recovery Plan Series, No. RRP 1, Perth, W. Aust.
Weigall F (1996) ‘Shaping the future 1997–2010: an economic development vision and strategy for the Wheatbelt Region.’ (Wheatbelt Development Commission: Northam, W. Aust.)
Western Australian Technology and Industry Advisory Council (2000) ‘Drivers and shapers of economic development in Western Australia in the 21st Century.’ (Western Australian Technology and Industry Advisory Council: Perth, WA) www.wa.gov.au/tiac/drivers/
Wheatbelt Development Commission (2001) ‘Wheatbelt economic perspective: an update on the economy of Western Australia’s Wheatbelt region, July 2001.’ (Department of Local Government and Regional Development and Wheatbelt Development Commission: Perth, W. Aust.)
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<meta content="Scenario planning was used to identify issues and drivers of change that are relevant to community efforts to improve regional prospects in the Western Australian Wheatbelt. The region, some 20 million hectares in area, is under pressure to respond to a variety of environmental (salinity, erosion, acidification, biodiversity decline), economic (declining agricultural terms of trade), and social forces (rural decline, isolation). Regional strategic plans have been increasingly seen as the means of achieving sustainability in the face of these challenges, but until recently typically had single-activity outlook and timeframes of up to a decade into the future. Systematic futures-based research has been used in various regions to avoid reliance on business-as-usual as the default strategy, and to identify opportunities and challenges not presently apparent. The Avon River Basin, the central region of the Wheatbelt, was selected as the geographic focus of the project, and the time horizon was set at 2050. The project was developed by a group of 50 stakeholders from the basin, with expertise and strategic interests across a wide range of economic, social, and environmental themes. Through a series of workshops the stakeholders identified critical issues and their attendant drivers, then documented relevant past trends. Four regional scenarios, Saline Growth, Grain and Drain, Landcare Bounty, and Harmony with Prosperity, were developed based on positive and negative combinations of 2 clusters of uncertain and important drivers: environmental change and access to new markets. Common opportunities, threats, and critical success factors for the Avon River Basin region out to 2050 were also identified. We also found that the stakeholders have a tendency to strive for positive outcomes despite negative initial conditions. This resulted in 4 scenarios that were superficially similar due to the regional scale of analysis and the continuation of agricultural industries as significant shapers of economy, society, and environment. However, each scenario represents profoundly different outcomes for the residents and communities of the Avon River Basin in 2050. The triple-bottom line outcomes for the Avon River Basin in 2050 were estimated to be in the range 4.9–9.7 Mt of wheat (currently 4.0), 46 000–66 000 people (currently 43 000), and 10–30% of farmland salinised (currently 6). The application of these results to other regions in Australia is discussed.
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<h1 class="ep_tm_pagetitle">The Avon River Basin in 2050: scenario planning in the Western Australian Wheatbelt</h1>
<p style="margin-bottom: 1em" class="not_ep_block"><span class="person_name">O'Connor, M.H.</span> and <span class="person_name">MacFarlane, M.J.</span> and <span class="person_name">Fisher, J.</span> and <span class="person_name">MacRae, D.</span> and <span class="person_name">Lefroy, E.C.</span> (2005) <xhtml:em>The Avon River Basin in 2050: scenario planning in the Western Australian Wheatbelt.</xhtml:em> Australian Journal of Agricultural Research, 56 (6). pp. 563-580. ISSN 0004-9409</p><p style="margin-bottom: 1em" class="not_ep_block"></p><table style="margin-bottom: 1em" class="not_ep_block"><tr><td valign="top" style="text-align:center"><a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/2562/1/Avon_River.pdf"><img alt="[img]" src="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/style/images/fileicons/application_pdf.png" class="ep_doc_icon" border="0" /></a></td><td valign="top"><a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/2562/1/Avon_River.pdf"><span class="ep_document_citation">PDF</span></a> - Full text restricted - Requires a PDF viewer<br />464Kb</td><td><form method="get" accept-charset="utf-8" action="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/cgi/request_doc"><input accept-charset="utf-8" value="3370" name="docid" type="hidden" /><div class=""><input value="Request a copy" name="_action_null" class="ep_form_action_button" onclick="return EPJS_button_pushed( '_action_null' )" type="submit" /> </div></form></td></tr></table><p style="margin-bottom: 1em" class="not_ep_block">Official URL: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/AR04195">http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/AR04195</a></p><div class="not_ep_block"><h2>Abstract</h2><p style="padding-bottom: 16px; text-align: left; margin: 1em auto 0em auto">Scenario planning was used to identify issues and drivers of change that are relevant to community efforts to improve regional prospects in the Western Australian Wheatbelt. The region, some 20 million hectares in area, is under pressure to respond to a variety of environmental (salinity, erosion, acidification, biodiversity decline), economic (declining agricultural terms of trade), and social forces (rural decline, isolation). Regional strategic plans have been increasingly seen as the means of achieving sustainability in the face of these challenges, but until recently typically had single-activity outlook and timeframes of up to a decade into the future. Systematic futures-based research has been used in various regions to avoid reliance on business-as-usual as the default strategy, and to identify opportunities and challenges not presently apparent. The Avon River Basin, the central region of the Wheatbelt, was selected as the geographic focus of the project, and the time horizon was set at 2050. The project was developed by a group of 50 stakeholders from the basin, with expertise and strategic interests across a wide range of economic, social, and environmental themes. Through a series of workshops the stakeholders identified critical issues and their attendant drivers, then documented relevant past trends. Four regional scenarios, Saline Growth, Grain and Drain, Landcare Bounty, and Harmony with Prosperity, were developed based on positive and negative combinations of 2 clusters of uncertain and important drivers: environmental change and access to new markets. Common opportunities, threats, and critical success factors for the Avon River Basin region out to 2050 were also identified. We also found that the stakeholders have a tendency to strive for positive outcomes despite negative initial conditions. This resulted in 4 scenarios that were superficially similar due to the regional scale of analysis and the continuation of agricultural industries as significant shapers of economy, society, and environment. However, each scenario represents profoundly different outcomes for the residents and communities of the Avon River Basin in 2050. The triple-bottom line outcomes for the Avon River Basin in 2050 were estimated to be in the range 4.9–9.7 Mt of wheat (currently 4.0), 46 000–66 000 people (currently 43 000), and 10–30% of farmland salinised (currently 6). The application of these results to other regions in Australia is discussed.
</p></div><table style="margin-bottom: 1em" cellpadding="3" class="not_ep_block" border="0"><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Item Type:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">Article</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Additional Information:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">http://www.publish.csiro.au/nid/40.htm</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Keywords:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">Water for a Healthy Country flagship, grainbelt, community planning</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Subjects:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row"><a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/view/subjects/300800.html">300000 Agricultural, Veterinary and Environmental Sciences > 300800 Environmental Sciences</a></td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">ID Code:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">2562</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Deposited By:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row"><span class="ep_name_citation"><span class="person_name">Ms Mignon J Jolly</span></span></td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Deposited On:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">06 Dec 2007 16:13</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Last Modified:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">09 Jan 2008 02:30</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">ePrint Statistics:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row"><a target="ePrintStats" href="/es/index.php?action=show_detail_eprint;id=2562;">View statistics for this ePrint</a></td></tr></table><p align="right">Repository Staff Only: <a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/cgi/users/home?screen=EPrint::View&eprintid=2562">item control page</a></p>
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