nigel.stanger / Digital_Repository
Transfer to URL with SHA Find file
Newer
Older
Digital_Repository / Misc / Mass downloads / UTas / 2508.html
Nigel Stanger on 7 May 2013 26 KB - Imported Misc directory.
Raw Blame History 
  1. <!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Transitional//EN"
  2. "http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-transitional.dtd">
  3. <html>
  4.   <head>
  5.     <title>UTas ePrints - The Term Spread and GDP Growth in Australia</title>
  6.     <script type="text/javascript" src="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/javascript/auto.js"><!-- padder --></script>
  7.     <style type="text/css" media="screen">@import url(http://eprints.utas.edu.au/style/auto.css);</style>
  8.     <style type="text/css" media="print">@import url(http://eprints.utas.edu.au/style/print.css);</style>
  9.     <link rel="icon" href="/images/eprints/favicon.ico" type="image/x-icon" />
  10.     <link rel="shortcut icon" href="/images/eprints/favicon.ico" type="image/x-icon" />
  11.     <link rel="Top" href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/" />
  12.     <link rel="Search" href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/cgi/search" />
  13.     <meta content="Poke, Jacob" name="eprints.creators_name" />
  14. <meta content="Wells, Graeme" name="eprints.creators_name" />
  15. <meta content="" name="eprints.creators_id" />
  16. <meta content="graeme.wells@utas.edu.au" name="eprints.creators_id" />
  17. <meta content="monograph" name="eprints.type" />
  18. <meta content="2007-11-22 01:33:23" name="eprints.datestamp" />
  19. <meta content="2008-01-08 15:30:00" name="eprints.lastmod" />
  20. <meta content="show" name="eprints.metadata_visibility" />
  21. <meta content="The Term Spread and GDP Growth in Australia" name="eprints.title" />
  22. <meta content="pub" name="eprints.ispublished" />
  23. <meta content="340203" name="eprints.subjects" />
  24. <meta content="340208" name="eprints.subjects" />
  25. <meta content="340401" name="eprints.subjects" />
  26. <meta content="public" name="eprints.full_text_status" />
  27. <meta content="discussion_paper" name="eprints.monograph_type" />
  28. <meta content="GDP, Term Spread, GDP Growth in Australia, REPEC" name="eprints.keywords" />
  29. <meta content="This paper analyses the e¤ectiveness of the spread between short and
  30. long term interest rates for predicting GDP growth in Australia, and
  31. whether the predictive relation deteriorates, as theory suggests, with the
  32. adoption of a credible in‡ation-targeting regime. We test whether predic-
  33. tive power is sensitive to inclusion of other conditioning variables which
  34. may be useful in forecasting GDP growth, and whether forecasting sig-
  35. ni…cance is due primarily to the expected change in short-term interest
  36. rates, the term premium, or a combination of the two. In a simple bivari-
  37. ate model, results strongly suggest that the shift to a credible in‡ation-
  38. targeting regime has reduced the predictive content of the term spread.
  39. However, extensions to this basic model tend to undermine this result.
  40. The predictive power of the term spread in Australia may have been over-
  41. sold." name="eprints.abstract" />
  42. <meta content="2007" name="eprints.date" />
  43. <meta content="published" name="eprints.date_type" />
  44. <meta content="School of Economics and Finance" name="eprints.publisher" />
  45. <meta content="University of Tasmania" name="eprints.place_of_pub" />
  46. <meta content="32" name="eprints.pages" />
  47. <meta content="2007-07" name="eprints.id_number" />
  48. <meta content="University of Tasmania" name="eprints.institution" />
  49. <meta content="School of Economics and Finance" name="eprints.department" />
  50. <meta content="http://www.utas.edu.au/ecofin/home/dispap_by-year/2007.htm" name="eprints.official_url" />
  51. <meta content="[1] Alles, L. (1995), The Australian term structure as a predictor of real economic activity’, Australian Economic Review, (4th quarter), 71-85.
  52. [2] Bernanke, Ben S. (2006), ‘Re‡ections on the Yield Curve and Monetary
  53. Policy’, Speech to the Economic Club of New York, March 20.
  54. [3] Bordo, Michael D and Joseph G. Haubrich (2004), ‘The Yield Curve, Re-
  55. cessions, and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long-Run Evidence,
  56. 1875-1997.’Working Paper 04-02. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  57. [4] Claus, Edda and Mardi Dungey (2006), ‘Yield curve responses to monetary
  58. policy in the presence of asymmetric information’, Working Paper, ANU
  59. Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, March.
  60. [5] Ellingsen, T. and U. Söderström (2001), ‘Monetary policy and market in-
  61. terest rates’, American Economic Review, 91(5) 1594-1607.
  62. [6] Fisher, C. and B. Felmingham (1998), ‘The Australian yield curve as a
  63. leading indicator of consumption growth’Applied Financial Economics, 8,
  64. 627-35.
  65. [7] Ford, B. and K. Taylor (2005), Recent developments in Australian bond
  66. yields’Australian Treasury Economic Roundup, Spring, 111-120.
  67. [8] Grenville, Stephen. (1997), ‘The Evolution of Mone-
  68. tary Policy: From Money Targets to In‡ation Targets.’
  69. http://www.rba.gov.au/PublicationsAndResearch/Conferences/1997/
  70. Grenville.pdf.
  71. [9] Hamilton, James D and Dong Heon Kim (2002), ‘A Reexamination of the
  72. Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread.’ Journal of
  73. Money, Credit and Banking, 34(2), 340-360.
  74. [10] Harvey, Campbell. R. (1988), ‘The Real Term Structure and Consumption
  75. Growth.’Journal of Financial Economics, Vol 22. pp305-333.
  76. 28
  77. [11] Karfakis, Costas I. and Demetrios M. Moschos (1995), ‘The Information
  78. Content of the Yield Curve in Australia’, Journal of Macroeconomics,
  79. 17(1), 93-109.
  80. [12] Karunaratne, N.D. (1999), ‘The yield curve as a predictor of growth and
  81. recession in Australia’, Discussion Paper 255, Department of Economics,
  82. University of Queensland, May.
  83. [13] Lowe, P. (1992), ‘The term structure of interest rates, real activity and
  84. in‡ation’, Research Discussion Paper 9204, Reserve Bank of Australia, May.
  85. [14] Macfarlane, Ian. J. (1998), ‘Australian Monetary Policy in the Last Quar-
  86. ter of the Twentieth Century.’Shann Memorial Lecture, delivered at the
  87. University of Western Australia.
  88. [15] Newey, Whitney and Kenneth West (1987), ‘A Simple, Positive Semi-
  89. De…nite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance
  90. Matrix.’Econometrica, 55, 703-708.
  91. [16] Plosser, Charles. I and Geert. K. Rouwenhorst (1994), ‘International Term
  92. Structures and Real Economic Growth.’Journal of Monetary Economics,
  93. 33, 133-155.
  94. [17] Rudebusch, Glenn D., Brian P. Sack and Eric T. Swanson (2007), ‘Macro-
  95. economic Implications of Changes in the Term premium’, Federal Reserve
  96. Bank of St Louis Review, July/August 241-270.
  97. [18] Stock, J.H. and M.W. Watson (2003), ‘Forecasting Output and In‡ation:
  98. The Role of Asset Prices’, Journal of Economic Literature, 41 (3), 788-829.
  99. [19] Wright, Jonathan. H. (2006), ‘The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions.
  100. Federal Reserve Board, Washington DC." name="eprints.referencetext" />
  101. <meta content="Poke, Jacob and Wells, Graeme (2007) The Term Spread and GDP Growth in Australia. Discussion Paper. School of Economics and Finance, University of Tasmania." name="eprints.citation" />
  102. <meta content="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/2508/2/DP2007_07_Poke_Wells.pdf" name="eprints.document_url" />
  103. <link rel="schema.DC" href="http://purl.org/DC/elements/1.0/" />
  104. <meta content="The Term Spread and GDP Growth in Australia" name="DC.title" />
  105. <meta content="Poke, Jacob" name="DC.creator" />
  106. <meta content="Wells, Graeme" name="DC.creator" />
  107. <meta content="340203 Finance Economics" name="DC.subject" />
  108. <meta content="340208 Macroeconomics (incl. Monetary and Fiscal Theory)" name="DC.subject" />
  109. <meta content="340401 Economic Models and Forecasting" name="DC.subject" />
  110. <meta content="This paper analyses the e¤ectiveness of the spread between short and
  111. long term interest rates for predicting GDP growth in Australia, and
  112. whether the predictive relation deteriorates, as theory suggests, with the
  113. adoption of a credible in‡ation-targeting regime. We test whether predic-
  114. tive power is sensitive to inclusion of other conditioning variables which
  115. may be useful in forecasting GDP growth, and whether forecasting sig-
  116. ni…cance is due primarily to the expected change in short-term interest
  117. rates, the term premium, or a combination of the two. In a simple bivari-
  118. ate model, results strongly suggest that the shift to a credible in‡ation-
  119. targeting regime has reduced the predictive content of the term spread.
  120. However, extensions to this basic model tend to undermine this result.
  121. The predictive power of the term spread in Australia may have been over-
  122. sold." name="DC.description" />
  123. <meta content="School of Economics and Finance" name="DC.publisher" />
  124. <meta content="2007" name="DC.date" />
  125. <meta content="Report" name="DC.type" />
  126. <meta content="NonPeerReviewed" name="DC.type" />
  127. <meta content="application/pdf" name="DC.format" />
  128. <meta content="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/2508/2/DP2007_07_Poke_Wells.pdf" name="DC.identifier" />
  129. <meta content="http://www.utas.edu.au/ecofin/home/dispap_by-year/2007.htm" name="DC.relation" />
  130. <meta content="Poke, Jacob and Wells, Graeme (2007) The Term Spread and GDP Growth in Australia. Discussion Paper. School of Economics and Finance, University of Tasmania." name="DC.identifier" />
  131. <meta content="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/2508/" name="DC.relation" />
  132. <link rel="alternate" href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/cgi/export/2508/BibTeX/epprod-eprint-2508.bib" title="BibTeX" type="text/plain" />
  133. <link rel="alternate" href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/cgi/export/2508/ContextObject/epprod-eprint-2508.xml" title="OpenURL ContextObject" type="text/xml" />
  134. <link rel="alternate" href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/cgi/export/2508/ContextObject::Dissertation/epprod-eprint-2508.xml" title="OpenURL Dissertation" type="text/xml" />
  135. <link rel="alternate" href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/cgi/export/2508/ContextObject::Journal/epprod-eprint-2508.xml" title="OpenURL Journal" type="text/xml" />
  136. <link rel="alternate" href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/cgi/export/2508/DC/epprod-eprint-2508.txt" title="Dublin Core" type="text/plain" />
  137. <link rel="alternate" href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/cgi/export/2508/DIDL/epprod-eprint-2508.xml" title="DIDL" type="text/xml" />
  138. <link rel="alternate" href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/cgi/export/2508/EndNote/epprod-eprint-2508.enw" title="EndNote" type="text/plain" />
  139. <link rel="alternate" href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/cgi/export/2508/HTML/epprod-eprint-2508.html" title="HTML Citation" type="text/html; charset=utf-8" />
  140. <link rel="alternate" href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/cgi/export/2508/METS/epprod-eprint-2508.xml" title="METS" type="text/xml" />
  141. <link rel="alternate" href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/cgi/export/2508/MODS/epprod-eprint-2508.xml" title="MODS" type="text/xml" />
  142. <link rel="alternate" href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/cgi/export/2508/RIS/epprod-eprint-2508.ris" title="Reference Manager" type="text/plain" />
  143. <link rel="alternate" href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/cgi/export/2508/Refer/epprod-eprint-2508.refer" title="Refer" type="text/plain" />
  144. <link rel="alternate" href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/cgi/export/2508/Simple/epprod-eprint-2508text" title="Simple Metadata" type="text/plain" />
  145. <link rel="alternate" href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/cgi/export/2508/Text/epprod-eprint-2508.txt" title="ASCII Citation" type="text/plain; charset=utf-8" />
  146. <link rel="alternate" href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/cgi/export/2508/XML/epprod-eprint-2508.xml" title="EP3 XML" type="text/xml" />
  147.  
  148.   </head>
  149.   <body bgcolor="#ffffff" text="#000000" onLoad="loadRoutine(); MM_preloadImages('images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r5_c5_f2.gif','images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r5_c7_f2.gif','images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r5_c8_f2.gif','images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r5_c9_f2.gif','images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r5_c10_f2.gif','images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r5_c11_f2.gif','images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r6_c4_f2.gif')">
  150.     
  151.     <div class="ep_noprint"><noscript><style type="text/css">@import url(http://eprints.utas.edu.au/style/nojs.css);</style></noscript></div>
  152.  
  153.  
  154.  
  155.  
  156. <table width="795" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
  157.   <tr>
  158.     <td><script language="JavaScript1.2">mmLoadMenus();</script>
  159.       <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="795">
  160.         <!-- fwtable fwsrc="eprints_banner_final2.png" fwbase="ePrints_banner.gif" fwstyle="Dreamweaver" fwdocid = "1249563342" fwnested="0" -->
  161.         <tr>
  162.           <td><img src="/images/eprints/spacer.gif" width="32" height="1" border="0" alt="" /></td>
  163.           <td><img src="/images/eprints/spacer.gif" width="104" height="1" border="0" alt="" /></td>
  164.           <td><img src="/images/eprints/spacer.gif" width="44" height="1" border="0" alt="" /></td>
  165.           <td><img src="/images/eprints/spacer.gif" width="105" height="1" border="0" alt="" /></td>
  166.           <td><img src="/images/eprints/spacer.gif" width="41" height="1" border="0" alt="" /></td>
  167.           <td><img src="/images/eprints/spacer.gif" width="16" height="1" border="0" alt="" /></td>
  168.           <td><img src="/images/eprints/spacer.gif" width="68" height="1" border="0" alt="" /></td>
  169.           <td><img src="/images/eprints/spacer.gif" width="68" height="1" border="0" alt="" /></td>
  170.           <td><img src="/images/eprints/spacer.gif" width="68" height="1" border="0" alt="" /></td>
  171.           <td><img src="/images/eprints/spacer.gif" width="82" height="1" border="0" alt="" /></td>
  172.           <td><img src="/images/eprints/spacer.gif" width="69" height="1" border="0" alt="" /></td>
  173.           <td><img src="/images/eprints/spacer.gif" width="98" height="1" border="0" alt="" /></td>
  174.           <td><img src="/images/eprints/spacer.gif" width="1" height="1" border="0" alt="" /></td>
  175.         </tr>
  176.         <tr>
  177.           <td colspan="12"><img name="ePrints_banner_r1_c1" src="/images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r1_c1.gif" width="795" height="10" border="0" alt="" /></td>
  178.           <td><img src="/images/eprints/spacer.gif" width="1" height="10" border="0" alt="" /></td>
  179.         </tr>
  180.         <tr>
  181.           <td rowspan="6"><img name="ePrints_banner_r2_c1" src="/images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r2_c1.gif" width="32" height="118" border="0" alt="" /></td>
  182.           <td rowspan="5"><a href="http://www.utas.edu.au/"><img name="ePrints_banner_r2_c2" src="/images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r2_c2.gif" width="104" height="103" border="0" alt="" /></a></td>
  183.           <td colspan="10"><img name="ePrints_banner_r2_c3" src="/images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r2_c3.gif" width="659" height="41" border="0" alt="" /></td>
  184.           <td><img src="/images/eprints/spacer.gif" width="1" height="41" border="0" alt="" /></td>
  185.         </tr>
  186.         <tr>
  187.           <td colspan="3"><a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/"><img name="ePrints_banner_r3_c3" src="/images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r3_c3.gif" width="190" height="31" border="0" alt="" /></a></td>
  188.           <td rowspan="2" colspan="7"><img name="ePrints_banner_r3_c6" src="/images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r3_c6.gif" width="469" height="37" border="0" alt="" /></td>
  189.           <td><img src="/images/eprints/spacer.gif" width="1" height="31" border="0" alt="" /></td>
  190.         </tr>
  191.         <tr>
  192.           <td colspan="3"><img name="ePrints_banner_r4_c3" src="/images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r4_c3.gif" width="190" height="6" border="0" alt="" /></td>
  193.           <td><img src="/images/eprints/spacer.gif" width="1" height="6" border="0" alt="" /></td>
  194.         </tr>
  195.         <tr>
  196.           <td colspan="2"><img name="ePrints_banner_r5_c3" src="/images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r5_c3.gif" width="149" height="1" border="0" alt="" /></td>
  197.           <td rowspan="2" colspan="2"><a href="/information.html" onMouseOut="MM_swapImgRestore();MM_startTimeout()" onMouseOver="MM_showMenu(window.mm_menu_0821132634_0,0,25,null,'ePrints_banner_r5_c5');MM_swapImage('ePrints_banner_r5_c5','','/images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r5_c5_f2.gif',1);"><img name="ePrints_banner_r5_c5" src="/images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r5_c5.gif" width="57" height="25" border="0" alt="About" /></a></td>
  198.           <td rowspan="2"><a href="/view/" onMouseOut="MM_swapImgRestore();MM_startTimeout()" onMouseOver="MM_showMenu(window.mm_menu_0821133021_1,0,25,null,'ePrints_banner_r5_c7');MM_swapImage('ePrints_banner_r5_c7','','/images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r5_c7_f2.gif',1);"><img name="ePrints_banner_r5_c7" src="/images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r5_c7.gif" width="68" height="25" border="0" alt="Browse" /></a></td>
  199.           <td rowspan="2"><a href="/perl/search/simple" onMouseOut="MM_swapImgRestore();MM_startTimeout()" onMouseOver="MM_showMenu(window.mm_menu_0821133201_2,0,25,null,'ePrints_banner_r5_c8');MM_swapImage('ePrints_banner_r5_c8','','/images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r5_c8_f2.gif',1);"><img name="ePrints_banner_r5_c8" src="/images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r5_c8.gif" width="68" height="25" border="0" alt="Search" /></a></td>
  200.           <td rowspan="2"><a href="/perl/register" onMouseOut="MM_swapImgRestore();MM_startTimeout();" onMouseOver="MM_showMenu(window.mm_menu_1018171924_3,0,25,null,'ePrints_banner_r5_c9');MM_swapImage('ePrints_banner_r5_c9','','/images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r5_c9_f2.gif',1);"><img name="ePrints_banner_r5_c9" src="/images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r5_c9.gif" width="68" height="25" border="0" alt="register" /></a></td>
  201.           <td rowspan="2"><a href="/perl/users/home" onMouseOut="MM_swapImgRestore();MM_startTimeout()" onMouseOver="MM_showMenu(window.mm_menu_0821133422_4,0,25,null,'ePrints_banner_r5_c10');MM_swapImage('ePrints_banner_r5_c10','','/images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r5_c10_f2.gif',1);"><img name="ePrints_banner_r5_c10" src="/images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r5_c10.gif" width="82" height="25" border="0" alt="user area" /></a></td>
  202.           <td rowspan="2"><a href="/help/" onMouseOut="MM_swapImgRestore();MM_startTimeout()" onMouseOver="MM_showMenu(window.mm_menu_0821133514_5,0,25,null,'ePrints_banner_r5_c11');MM_swapImage('ePrints_banner_r5_c11','','/images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r5_c11_f2.gif',1);"><img name="ePrints_banner_r5_c11" src="/images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r5_c11.gif" width="69" height="25" border="0" alt="Help" /></a></td>
  203.           <td rowspan="3" colspan="4"><img name="ePrints_banner_r5_c12" src="/images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r5_c12.gif" width="98" height="40" border="0" alt="" /></td>
  204.           <td><img src="/images/eprints/spacer.gif" width="1" height="1" border="0" alt="" /></td>
  205.         </tr>
  206.         <tr>
  207.           <td rowspan="2"><img name="ePrints_banner_r6_c3" src="/images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r6_c3.gif" width="44" height="39" border="0" alt="ePrints home" /></td>
  208.           <td><a href="/" onMouseOut="MM_swapImgRestore()" onMouseOver="MM_swapImage('ePrints_banner_r6_c4','','/images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r6_c4_f2.gif',1);"><img name="ePrints_banner_r6_c4" src="/images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r6_c4.gif" width="105" height="24" border="0" alt="ePrints home" /></a></td>
  209.           <td><img src="/images/eprints/spacer.gif" width="1" height="24" border="0" alt="" /></td>
  210.         </tr>
  211.         <tr>
  212.           <td><img name="ePrints_banner_r7_c2" src="/images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r7_c2.gif" width="104" height="15" border="0" alt="" /></td>
  213.           <td colspan="8"><img name="ePrints_banner_r7_c4" src="/images/eprints/ePrints_banner_r7_c4.gif" width="517" height="15" border="0" alt="" /></td>
  214.           <td><img src="/images/eprints/spacer.gif" width="1" height="15" border="0" alt="" /></td>
  215.         </tr>
  216.       </table></td>
  217.   </tr>
  218.     <tr><td><table width="100%" style="font-size: 90%; border: solid 1px #ccc; padding: 3px"><tr>
  219.       <td align="left"><a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/cgi/users/home">Login</a> | <a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/cgi/register">Create Account</a></td>
  220.       <td align="right" style="white-space: nowrap">
  221.         <form method="get" accept-charset="utf-8" action="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/cgi/search" style="display:inline">
  222.           <input class="ep_tm_searchbarbox" size="20" type="text" name="q" />
  223.           <input class="ep_tm_searchbarbutton" value="Search" type="submit" name="_action_search" />
  224.           <input type="hidden" name="_order" value="bytitle" />
  225.           <input type="hidden" name="basic_srchtype" value="ALL" />
  226.           <input type="hidden" name="_satisfyall" value="ALL" />
  227.         </form>
  228.       </td>
  229.     </tr></table></td></tr>
  230.   <tr>
  231.     <td class="toplinks"><!-- InstanceBeginEditable name="content" -->
  232.  
  233.  
  234. <div align="center">
  235.   
  236.   <table width="720" class="ep_tm_main"><tr><td align="left">
  237.     <h1 class="ep_tm_pagetitle">The Term Spread and GDP Growth in Australia</h1>
  238.     <p style="margin-bottom: 1em" class="not_ep_block"><span class="person_name">Poke, Jacob</span> and <span class="person_name">Wells, Graeme</span> (2007) <xhtml:em>The Term Spread and GDP Growth in Australia.</xhtml:em> Discussion Paper. School of Economics and Finance, University of Tasmania.</p><p style="margin-bottom: 1em" class="not_ep_block"></p><table style="margin-bottom: 1em" class="not_ep_block"><tr><td valign="top" style="text-align:center"><a onmouseover="EPJS_ShowPreview( event, 'doc_preview_3301' );" href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/2508/2/DP2007_07_Poke_Wells.pdf" onmouseout="EPJS_HidePreview( event, 'doc_preview_3301' );"><img alt="[img]" src="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/style/images/fileicons/application_pdf.png" class="ep_doc_icon" border="0" /></a><div class="ep_preview" id="doc_preview_3301"><table><tr><td><img alt="" src="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/2508/thumbnails/2/preview.png" class="ep_preview_image" border="0" /><div class="ep_preview_title">Preview</div></td></tr></table></div></td><td valign="top"><a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/2508/2/DP2007_07_Poke_Wells.pdf"><span class="ep_document_citation">PDF</span></a> - Requires a PDF viewer<br />219Kb</td></tr></table><p style="margin-bottom: 1em" class="not_ep_block">Official URL: <a href="http://www.utas.edu.au/ecofin/home/dispap_by-year/2007.htm">http://www.utas.edu.au/ecofin/home/dispap_by-year/2007.htm</a></p><div class="not_ep_block"><h2>Abstract</h2><p style="padding-bottom: 16px; text-align: left; margin: 1em auto 0em auto">This paper analyses the e¤ectiveness of the spread between short and&#13;
  239. long term interest rates for predicting GDP growth in Australia, and&#13;
  240. whether the predictive relation deteriorates, as theory suggests, with the&#13;
  241. adoption of a credible in‡ation-targeting regime. We test whether predic-&#13;
  242. tive power is sensitive to inclusion of other conditioning variables which&#13;
  243. may be useful in forecasting GDP growth, and whether forecasting sig-&#13;
  244. ni…cance is due primarily to the expected change in short-term interest&#13;
  245. rates, the term premium, or a combination of the two. In a simple bivari-&#13;
  246. ate model, results strongly suggest that the shift to a credible in‡ation-&#13;
  247. targeting regime has reduced the predictive content of the term spread.&#13;
  248. However, extensions to this basic model tend to undermine this result.&#13;
  249. The predictive power of the term spread in Australia may have been over-&#13;
  250. sold.</p></div><table style="margin-bottom: 1em" cellpadding="3" class="not_ep_block" border="0"><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Item Type:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">Report (Discussion Paper)</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Keywords:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">GDP, Term Spread, GDP Growth in Australia, REPEC</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Subjects:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row"><a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/view/subjects/340203.html">340000 Economics &gt; 340200 Applied Economics &gt; 340203 Finance Economics</a><br /><a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/view/subjects/340208.html">340000 Economics &gt; 340200 Applied Economics &gt; 340208 Macroeconomics (incl. Monetary and Fiscal Theory)</a><br /><a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/view/subjects/340401.html">340000 Economics &gt; 340400 Econometrics &gt; 340401 Economic Models and Forecasting</a></td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">ID Code:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">2508</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Deposited By:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row"><span class="ep_name_citation"><span class="person_name">Ms Tracy Kostiuk</span></span></td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Deposited On:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">22 Nov 2007 12:33</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">Last Modified:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row">09 Jan 2008 02:30</td></tr><tr><th valign="top" class="ep_row">ePrint Statistics:</th><td valign="top" class="ep_row"><a target="ePrintStats" href="/es/index.php?action=show_detail_eprint;id=2508;">View statistics for this ePrint</a></td></tr></table><p align="right">Repository Staff Only: <a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/cgi/users/home?screen=EPrint::View&amp;eprintid=2508">item control page</a></p>
  251.   </td></tr></table>
  252. </div>
  253.  
  254.  
  255.  
  256.     <!-- InstanceEndEditable --></td>
  257.   </tr>
  258.   <tr>
  259.     <td><!-- #BeginLibraryItem "/Library/footer_eprints.lbi" -->
  260.     <table width="795" border="0" align="left" cellpadding="0" class="footer">
  261.   <tr valign="top">
  262. <td colspan="2"><div align="center"><a href="http://www.utas.edu.au">UTAS home</a> | <a href="http://www.utas.edu.au/library/">Library home</a> | <a href="/">ePrints home</a> | <a href="/contact.html">contact</a> | <a href="/information.html">about</a> | <a href="/view/">browse</a> | <a href="/perl/search/simple">search</a> | <a href="/perl/register">register</a> | <a href="/perl/users/home">user area</a> | <a href="/help/">help</a></div><br /></td>
  263. </tr>
  264. <tr><td colspan="2"><p><img src="/images/eprints/footerline.gif" width="100%" height="4" /></p></td></tr>
  265.       <tr valign="top">
  266.         <td width="68%" class="footer">Authorised by the University Librarian<br />
  267. © University of Tasmania ABN 30 764 374 782<br />
  268.       <a href="http://www.utas.edu.au/cricos/">CRICOS Provider Code 00586B</a> | <a href="http://www.utas.edu.au/copyright/copyright_disclaimers.html">Copyright &amp; Disclaimers</a> | <a href="http://www.utas.edu.au/accessibility/index.html">Accessibility</a> | <a href="http://eprints.utas.edu.au/feedback/">Site Feedback</a>  </td>
  269.         <td width="32%"><div align="right">
  270.             <p align="right" class="NoPrint"><a href="http://www.utas.edu.au/"><img src="http://www.utas.edu.au/shared/logos/unioftasstrip.gif" alt="University of Tasmania Home Page" width="260" height="16" border="0" align="right" /></a></p>
  271.             <p align="right" class="NoPrint"><a href="http://www.utas.edu.au/"><br />
  272.             </a></p>
  273.         </div></td>
  274.       </tr>
  275.       <tr valign="top">
  276.         <td><p>  </p></td>
  277.         <td><div align="right"><span class="NoPrint"><a href="http://www.eprints.org/software/"><img src="/images/eprintslogo.gif" alt="ePrints logo" width="77" height="29" border="0" align="bottom" /></a></span></div></td>
  278.       </tr>
  279.     </table>
  280.     <!-- #EndLibraryItem -->
  281.     <div align="center"></div></td>
  282.   </tr>
  283. </table>
  284.  
  285.   </body>
  286. </html>